NBA Picks: More Low Scoring Expected For Grizzlies-Spurs Game 2

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 3:45 PM GMT

The injury-ravaged Grizzlies get another shot at pulling off what would be the biggest upset in NBA playoff history, when they battle the Spurs in Game 2. Get your NBA pick and analysis here.

Memphis Grizzlies (42-41 SU, 42-40-1 ATS)
By and large, bettors anticipated the 106-74 beatdown San Antonio handed the Grizzlies in Game 1. NBA odds boards opened the Spurs as 14.5-point chalk, most books adjusting the number to -17.5 by tip. The spread is a bit more complex tonight with sportsbooks offering the line at 18.5 points.

For what it’s worth, the Spurs have won by 20 points or more six times in 14 attempts after beating an opponent by 20 or more last time out this season.

For Memphis, with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol out, there are very few outlets for scoring. The squad is made up of role players and aging first-teamers. The 39-year-old Vince Carter was leading scorer in Game 1 with 16 points for goodness sake. What is scarier is that it is the third time he has topped Memphis in points since Conley went down.

Outside of Carter, the starting five was seven for 29 from the floor, with Matt Barnes and Zach Randolph going four of 20 combined. The Grizz need someone to light a fire offensively. Badly.

On defense, Memphis has to find a way to limit LaMarcus Aldridge. The team's 38.6 points in the paint allowed per game were the fewest in the NBA, but it was much better with now-injured Gasol’s rim-protecting presence down low.

Aldridge, who entered Game 1 with concern over an ailing finger on his shooting hand, dropped 17 and commanded the area once again. The big-guy netted 32, 31, and 18 in three meetings prior. The Game 1 defeat gives Memphis a 5-16 SU record in its last 21 games with Conley on the mend, losing by 9.1 points per game.

 

San Antonio Spurs (68-15 SU, 44-38-1 ATS)
How fitting that Kawhi Leonard accepted his second-straight Defensive Player of the Year award following Game 1 on Monday. The face of the franchise has suited up against the Grizz three times this season, he and the defense holding them to 79.7 points per game on average. Memphis, in fact, has not scored more than 83 in a contest.

On offense, San Antonio is a machine. At AT&T Center, it is going to shoot 48-50 percent from the floor and drop 104-106 points a night, almost like clockwork. As Game 1 showed, the Spurs are not immune to some off-quarters, though.

Looking rushed and missing open-looks, coach Gregg Popovich’s men shot just 35.0 percent from the floor in the first quarter for 22 points. Out of 20 quarters against the Grizz this season, San Antonio has won 14 of them. Memphis can derail the point spread if they can string together a couple of winning periods, or at least a half.

Must Read: Charles' Stark Prediction On This Game

Final Analysis
The Spurs shutdown defense has been relentless against the Grizz early on in games this season. Twice Memphis has put 45 points or more in the first half in five meetings versus the Spurs.

Defensive star Kawhi Leonard did not suit up for both. In the three he played, San Antonio held the Grizz to 36, 37, and 39 respectively. If your book offers a first-half team total prop, it might be worth fading Memphis solo. If not, take a gamble on the 'Under' 93.5 first half for both teams as your NBA pick. We are. 

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Free NBA Pick: 'Under' 93.5 (-104) –– first half
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle