NBA Picks: Monday's NBA Playoff Predictions

Jordan Sharp

Monday, April 28, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 28, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

It’s that time of the year, and with an elimination game on tonight in the NBA, there should be some desperate teams, and some great NBA Odds value. I have found two plays tonight and I think both could end up profitable.

Hawks vs. Pacers Game 5
This series is just like I thought it would be. If you reference back to some of my articles and videos before the playoffs started, I thought this series would go six games and the Pacers would win. Tonight Indiana is a -6 ½ NBA Odds favorite, with a total of 186 ½ against the visiting Hawks. Indiana played much better in Game 4 to tie the series, and now their defense has to be as good or better once again to get this win.

However -6 ½ is a sharp spread, and if I were leaning one way, I would probably fade the Pacers here. However I am not playing the spread game with this one, instead I have another total play. At 186 ½, I think the total may be just a few points too low. This one is very close, and compared to my next play, I’m not as sure on it. However even with the Pacers likely playing superb defense at home, I think their offense could improve enough where they score a ton of points tonight.

You can see why I’m weary of the spread, however I do see the 'over' being the best choice for our NBA picks. Even though the under has cashed in three of the last four games in this series, a total of 186 ½ seems to be the sportsbooks overcorrecting for their mistakes with the totals over the last week. The Hawks are cashing the over as an away team at almost 60% if you combine their regular and postseason numbers, and a big reason for that has been their road defense. Indiana should have no problem getting into the upper 90s, and if that’s the case, the Hawks won’t need to have more than 90 points for this total to go over. In such a crucial game, defense normally wins out, but as we have seen for four games now, these two teams are horrible matchups for one another. 

My Pick: OVER 186 ½


Spurs vs. Mavs Game 4
If you hadn’t noticed, the Heat and Spurs are getting some love from the league scheduling office, because both are playing only their fourth playoff game tonight. It’s been over a week since they had Game 1’s, and that will only benefit the older teams as we go along. Tonight one of those older teams is in trouble, as they are down 1-2 to the Mavs in Dallas tonight. However the NBA Odds seem to think San Antonio will win, because they are -4 favorites, with a total of 202.

Vince Carter is still Vincanity. That’s all you can say about Game 3. The Spurs played a good game, they had it won, and a miraculous shot took it away. You can bet the Spurs will be fired up to win this game, and I think the NBA Odds of -4 are slightly undervaluing them. 

The Mavs still can’t stop Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, and the longer that goes on the more they will be able to exploit the Mavs’ weaknesses in the front court. Even though they are on the road, I see the Spurs evening up the series, and I will be adding a San Antonio cover to my sports picks. Dallas has now covered all three games of this series ATS, and that is just another reason why the spread is so low. Including the regular and postseason, the Spurs are 20-12 ATS as road favorites this season.   

My Pick: Spurs -4


comment here