NBA Picks: Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs

David Bertans playing

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 14, 2016 9:10 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 14, 2016 9:10 PM GMT

We had a big swing and miss on our NBA Pick for the Blazers and Clippers last night, but we have still hit three of our four NBA plays this preseason. It’s another big night and while this matchup has lost some of its luster, the Heat is a +6 ½ underdog in San Antonio, with a total of 194 ½ tonight. 

 

NBA Preseason Picks Record: 3-1

 

Handicapping Preseason Schedules

The Spurs opted for a shorter and more front-loaded preseason this year, so this is the second to last game for them before the regular season starts. Tonight will likely be the last time we see future Spurs starters in a preseason game, meaning they will likely want to put up a good showing to give them momentum heading into the regular season.

The Heat are a bit of a different story. They have played only three preseason games in the last 10 days and they are playing a slightly ridiculous five games in the next eight days, including two back to backs.

I expect the Heat to play their starters a lot in this game, but potentially sit them out entirely in their game tomorrow night against Minnesota. However, it’s tough to tell. They are on the road tonight but at home tomorrow, meaning there is always a chance they hold out some of their starters tonight on the front end of a meaningless preseason back to back. 

 

 

Looking For NBA Championship Winner Odds? Check Out SBR Betting Futures

 

 


The Sharp Pick

With that in mind and with the Spurs playing in their one and only preseason game until a week from now, this could end up being a pretty low scoring game. LaMarcus Aldridge has already been ruled out for the Spurs on Friday, which takes away a big chunk of San Antonio’s offense.

While I expect the Spurs’ starters to play close to 30 minutes, the Spurs are giving up an impressive 87 points per game in the preseason. While the Heat has been in some high scoring games so far this preseason, the Spurs will dictate the pace and style of this one in their home building.

Considering this is also San Antonio’s third game this week, one has to think their scoring will continue to go down. What’s also nice is that they have a short history of holding teams down in their building during the preseason. In the last two years, the Spurs are averaging giving up only 93 points per game at home in the preseason.  

Take that into tonight with the Heat having very few offensive options outside of Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game tonight. I see a sloppy one from the Heat and a game where they might not get past 90 points, keep that in mind when doing your NBA pick.

 

Free NBA Pick: Under 194 ½ Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 

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