NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Warriors

Joe Freda

Thursday, January 31, 2013 4:14 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013 4:14 PM UTC

Will the Dallas Mavericks stay cash again in Oakland, or is the ‘total’ the right way to look with out NBA picks tonight? Find out what we are predicting to happen when the Dallas Mavericks meet the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Dallas Mavericks have surged to a 9-1 spread record in their last 10 matchups, notching 107.8 PPG in that stretch. Rick Carlisle’s crew continues a west coast swing in Thursday’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors, who return home after OVER tickets cashed at 4-0 in their latest road trip.

Read our Thursday Night NBA Value Picks for more insight on tonight's games.

Warriors, Thompson light up Cavs

Golden State finished this past week’s journey with Tuesday’s 108-95 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, cashing as a 1 ½-point favorite. The Warriors shot 53.6 percent from the field, including a stunning 11-of-16 mark from three-point land.

Warriors guard Klay Thompson logged a season-high night with 32 points, while adding three of his side’s nine blocks. Golden State’s Jarrett Jack and David Lee each notched a double-double, with team-highs of 12 assists and 13 boards, respectively.

The contest’s combined 203 points jumped OVER the closing ‘total’ of 201, with the Warriors outrebounding the Cavaliers, 39-36. Golden State was outscored by Cleveland in the paint, 44-38, while both squads united to hit 26-of-35 free throws.

Mavericks, Nowitzki edged out in Portland

Dallas saw a 21-point lead blown in Tuesday’s 106-104 defeat as a three-point road dog against the Portland Trail Blazers. Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki led his squad’s scoring with 26 points, knocking down 11-of-21 field buckets.

Dallas’ O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison logged nine assists each, while uniting for 32 points. The duo’s mate Shawn Marion grabbed a team-high nine boards, while adding two of his side’s eight steals.

The duel’s combined 210 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 201 ½, lifting the OVER to 7-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last nine games. Dallas drained 8-of-15 baskets beyond the arc, while edged out in rebounds, 46-40.


Back the OVER in Oakland opened Golden State as a 3 ½-point favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 206. Early wagers on Dallas and the UNDER dropped the NBA odds a ‘hook’ each to three and 205 ½.

Warriors guard Stephen Curry (21 PPG) missed Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury and is listed as “questionable” to return here. Mavericks center Chris Kaman (12.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is out indefinitely with a concussion.

I am riding the trends of octane here, adding a ticket on the OVER as part of Thursday’s NBA picks. Golden State has put up 105 PPG in its last two home dates, while the OVER has cashed at 7-2 in Dallas’ last nine road games.

Dallas has allowed 103 PPG this year, ranking a lowly 29th among the league. The Mavs dropped an overtime decision to Golden State in November, 105-101, which moved the OVER to 5-3 in the last eight meetings between these rivals.

Golden State has connected from their home floor at 46.6 percent, including 40.9 percent from three-point land at home. The Warriors could be without Curry here, but showed their depth in Cleveland with Klay Thompson stepping up with season-high scoring.

Look for the OVER to collect again here, adding to a 10-4 mark for the wager in Golden State’s last 14 games against Western Conference foes.

NBA Picks: Back the OVER

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