NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Spurs Game 7

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, May 4, 2014 11:59 AM GMT

Sunday, May. 4, 2014 11:59 AM GMT

By some accounts, this series should not be at it’s seventh game, but both teams have played well, and it comes down to a winner take all Game 7. The NBA Odds obviously favor the Spurs, but are they overvalued once again?

DAL ATS $$$
There isn’t much more you can say about how well the Mavs have played against the Spurs this series ATS, however they find themselves in an ATS hole before the game even starts. The NBA Odds have the Spurs as a -6 ½ home favorite, with a total of 198 ½. So far this series, the Mavs have won every game ATS, despite going 3-3 SU, and with six straight wins ATS, you have to think people are jumping at taking +6 ½.

However I see the spread as somewhat of a wash here, and even though there will undoubtedly be people taking points and putting wagers on the moneyline for the Mavs too, the better wager to me is the total in this game, which sits once again at 198 ½. This is the third similar total we’ve seen from the sportsbooks in this series, and with the last two totals of around 198 going over, I am once again liking this one to go over.

Unlike the other Game 7 Sunday afternoon, these two teams have far from figured one another out on the defensive end. They both have too many great individual playmakers, and it’s running up the score a lot, even in contested games.

The start to the first quarter of Game 6 is a perfect example. These two teams could not miss against one another, and the Spurs’ defense gave up 34 points to the Mavs in the 1st quarter, and we never looked back from it with our over wager in Game 6.


The Sharp Pick
With the over cashing in the last two games of this series, it also makes the over good for four of the last five games of this series. Now entering Game 7, even though the defense will likely be stepped up some in this game, like I mentioned above, these two teams have too many options that are virtually un-guardable.

We all know about Dirk Nowizki and Tim Duncan, but the point guards were on full display in Game 6, and I see it again in number seven. Monta Ellis was particularly impressive in Game 6, and if he shows up like he did on Friday, the Mavs’ scoring is gong to be even more potent on the road.

Dallas will want to force the Spurs to play their style of game on offense, and it might force the tempo to speed up some here. The Spurs will want to work their half court offense, but even though that’s an over death trap for most teams, the Spurs are so efficient on offense that it really doesn’t matter for this play. It is even more of a non-factor when you consider that the total of 198 ½ is still a few points low.

These two teams have played one another in more than ten games this season, and if you combined they scores of all of them, you get about 105-101, which would be plenty for an over wager tonight.

My Pick: OVER 198 ½

[gameodds]5/285562/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

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