NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Spurs Game 5

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 30, 2014 12:08 PM GMT

This series is more competitive than anyone suggested before the playoffs started, and now the Mavs and Spurs are tied heading into Game 5. The NBA Odds still favor the Spurs heavily despite a key injury, but will they overcome regardless?

Tony Parker’s ankle woes
Tony Parker was visibly limited in Game 4 of this series, and the Spurs’ offense could not recover. If Parker is not better after 48 hours of rest in between Games 4 and 5, the Spurs are in some trouble here. Despite the question mark surrounding Parker’s health and status for Game 5, the NBA Odds still have the Spurs as solid -6 favorites at home, with a total of 198 points from BetOnline.

I am not ready to back either team on the spread considering the variable of Parker, but the total of 198 is much lower than I expected for this game. Even though Game 4 was pretty defensive in nature, these two teams are not great defensive units. Game 5 should be a testy one with the series tied, but 198 seems a bit too low for these teams, and I am on the over for Game 5.

If Parker is not able to handle the ball and run the offense, Greg Popovich will take the ball out of Parker’s hand. Manu Ginobli will likely get his hands on the ball a lot more in Game 5, and Pop might employ the unheralded Australian, Patty Mills some in this game as well. However Parker has made some gutsy performances before with injuries, and I think he can recover quickly and give the Spurs something here.


The Sharp Pick
As for the Mavs’ their status hasn’t changed much from Game 4 to 5. With this being the lowest total of the series, all Dallas has to do here is score within the mid to upper 90s, and this total will fly over. Dallas has the ability to that and then some in this game. During the regular and postseasons, the Mavs are 21-13 cashing the over as underdogs.

Even after the low scoring Game 4, the total has still gone over in two of the last three-playoff matchups between these two. In fact if you stretch back to the past regular season, the total has now gone over in five of the last seven times these two teams have played.

Most series have a strange game in the middle of it where the final score is nowhere close to what anyone suspected, and that was Game 4. Even though I don’t know if the Spurs can cover here, I think they will win the game SU to put pressure on the Mavs in Game 6. Their offense should improve a lot from scoring less than 90 points in Game 4, and Dallas should still put up their points behind the consistent scoring from Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki.

So far this regular and postseason, the Spurs have cashed the over at 23-19 at home, and at 42-33-1 as favorites. I see them continuing these trends on Wednesday evening, and with the total under 200 points, I am on the over.

My Pick: OVER 198

[gameodds]5/284399/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]