NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Nuggets

Steven Suarez

Thursday, April 4, 2013 6:11 PM GMT

Will the Nuggets be able to notch their third straight win without Ty Lawson? It's time to run over the NBA odds for Denver/Dallas before making our final sports picks.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets

Odds Overview

As it stands, the Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points at home, though some early movement suggests this number could keep rising. Both teams have been excellent against the spread, especially Denver, who are at 46-28-1 ATS on the season. Dallas is 42-32 ATS overall.

Many are expecting a lot of points in this game, which is why the O/U is at 208. The OVER is 6-2-1 in the Mavericks' last nine overall, but the UNDER is 5-1-1 in Denver's past seven. 

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks could've really used a win in L.A. over the Lakers on Tuesday, but got off to a slow start and couldn't recover.

Riding the hot play of Kobe Bryant and the emotion of retiring Shaquille O'Neal's number during halftime, the Lakers pounced on Dallas, holding them to 42.0 percent shooting overall. The Mavericks were out-scored 44-26 in the paint.

Dirk Nowitzki, who came in hot, finished with only 11 points, six assists, and five rebounds, shooting just 4-of-13 from the floor. He was also 2-of-6 from the charity stripe, which is almost unheard of when talking about Dirk.

Dallas got double-digit scoring out of five different players, but they were getting killed on the glass all night long. They were out-rebounded 57-37 by Dwight Howard and company.

For tonight, here's one thing potential Mavericks backers should take into consideration: they've done exceptionall well ATS after losses. They're an amazing 14-2 ATS over their last 16 contests following a straight up defeat. 

Get Live NBA Betting Odds Right Here

Denver Nuggets 

After losing consecutive games on the road versus New Orleans (110-86) and San Antonio (100-99), the Nuggets have rebounded by beating Brooklyn (109-87) at home and Utah by 17 on the road.

Denver was on fire right from the opening tip last night against the Jazz. They shot an impressive 56.2 percent from the field, with seven different Nuggets reaching double figures.

With Ty Lawson out, Andre Miller picked up the start and had 13 points and six assists. Danilo Gallinari dropped 21 points on 6-of-10 shooting, while Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, and Evan Fournier contributed a total of 42 points off the bench.

The Nuggets, one of the deepest teams in the NBA, didn't have anyone play over 32 minutes last night, so maybe tiredness won't be too much of a factor. Either way, they've been excellent on back-to-backs, going 13-5 ATS over their last 18 when playing on no days of rest.

To boot, Denver has recorded a 12-3 ATS mark over their previous 15 matchups at the Pepsi Center, though the Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last four trips to the city.

NBA Pick

The Mavericks need every win they can get, but we expect it to be tough sledding against a Nuggets team that's a ridiculous 33-3 SU and 25-11 ATS at home this season. 

Denver has shown they can play well without much recovery time, and they've proven they can chug along without their star point guard too. Miller is more than a servicable replacement, while the talented Fournier is getting a chance to show what he can do too. 

The Nuggets have been killing teams inside all year long, and that's one area where the Mavericks have really struggled. That should translate into a ton of easy looks in the interior for Denver and our NBA Picks, leading to another SU win and ATS cover for the hosts.

[gameodds]5/223835/442-19-999996-92/us[/gameodds]

Pick: Denver Nuggets -6.5 at Pinnicle