NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Kings

Joe Freda

Thursday, January 10, 2013 1:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013 1:42 PM UTC

Will the Dallas Mavericks pull off a cover in their road trip finale or can the Sacramento Kings avenge their earlier setback? Where have the NBA odds makers left us value, and which team have we decided to back with our free sports picks tonight?

The Dallas Mavericks have picked up just one win over their last seven road contests, while cashing at NBA betting windows with a 5-2 spread record. Rick Carlisle’s club finishes a three-game road trip in Thursday’s matchup with the Sacramento Kings, who dropped December’s meeting with Dallas, 119-96, as a six-point underdog.


Mavs, Collison edged out in L.A.

Dallas held on to cash as a 10-point road dog in the front end of a back-to-back spot, logging Wednesday’s 99-93 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Mavericks led by as many as 10 points, while getting outscored in the fourth quarter, 27-18.

Mavericks guard Darren Collison came away with team-highs of 22 points and six assists, hitting 9-of-15 shots from the field. Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzski and Shawn Marion united for 13 boards, while mates O.J. Mayo and Jae Crowder logged three steals each.

The contest’s combined 192 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 201 ½, moving the UNDER to 4-3 in the Mavericks’ last seven games. Dallas sank 15-of-18 free throws, while being outrebounded, 47-34.

Kings, Salmons blown away at home

Sacramento logged a second straight double-digit loss in Monday’s 113-81 setback as a four-point home dog against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Kings were held to 36.8 percent field shooting, while edged out in fast break points, 27-8.

Kings forward John Salmons drained 3-of-4 buckets beyond the arc, finishing with a team-high 17 points. Sacramento’s Thomas Robinson notched a season-high 12 boards, playing 21 minutes off the bench.

The lopsided affair’s combined 194 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 188, lifting the OVER to 8-1 in the Kings’ last nine games. Sacramento allowed Memphis to connect 11-of-20 shots from three-point land, while both sides united to hit 44-of-50 free throws.

Back the Kings as home faves

The NBA odds makers at opened Sacramento as a two-point home favorite, with the number unchanged after early wagers. The ‘total’ was first listed at 206 ½, dropping to 205 ½ after initial betting action favored the UNDER.

I am laying the short number here, backing the Kings as part of my NBA picks for Thursday’s card. The Kings have had their moments at Sleep Train Arena, cashing at 6-2 ATS in their last eight home dates.

Sacramento should also come in looking to bounce back from its spanking against Memphis, while finding itself in a revenge spot. Kings center DeMarcus Cousins saw a string of six straight double-doubles snap in the team’s battle with the Grizzlies, grabbing 12.7 RPG over the seven-game span.

Both sides enter with losing streaks, but Dallas playing a third game in four nights makes it a tough spot for Nowitzki and Co. to end their slide. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six contests that came after cashing a pointspread cover, while logging a 1-4 spread mark in their most recent five clashes with Western Conference rivals.

Look for Dallas to be outgunned here in “Sac-town,” with the home team going 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between these foes. 

NBA Pick:  Sacramento Kings -2
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