NBA Picks: Magic vs. Heat

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, March 6, 2013 1:12 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 6, 2013 1:12 PM GMT

The Heat take their double digit winning streak back home tonight as they welcome in their cross-state rivals, the Magic. Find out why we are focusing our NBA picks on this game's total.


As you likely guessed, Orlando is a big underdog in the NBA Odds, as they are +15 ½, with a total of 203 ½. While I think the Heat will start to become overvalued if they haven’t already in the odds, I’m siding once again with a pick on the total in this game.

Miami of course is on a nice 15 game winning streak, but they have only covered their last two games in a row, after losing three straight ATS. Now as double-digit home favorites again, I am not looking that way with my NBA picks tonight.

[gameodds]5/220372/43/us[/gameodds]

So while the spread is tempting, I see more value for our sports picks in the total, which is a manageable 203 ½ points. With the Magic going into tank mode for the rest of the season, I think the over has to be the play tonight, as I’m not sure what will be stopping Miami from scoring around 120 points. Say what you want about their so call “defense,” but the Heat play down to their competition all the time. Why do you think they recently didn’t cover lofty spreads against Sacramento and Cleveland? Miami toys with their lesser opponents, letting them hang around longer than they should, thus allowing them to score some more points. 

These two played to a 112-110 game earlier this season, and with the exception of the Magic’s points being a little lower and the Heat’s a bit higher, I see a similar game tonight. The over has cashed in Miami’s last five home games, and the over has cashed in two of their last three meetings. With Orlando hemorrhaging points like they are, giving up over 113 points per game in their last four games, I’m on the over tonight in South Beach. 

My NBA Pick: OVER 203 ½
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