NBA Picks: Look For Kings & Mavericks To Light Up The Scoreboards

Charles Stark

Tuesday, January 5, 2016 3:46 PM GMT

The Sacramento Kings and the Dallas Mavericks meet tonight and we are ready to bring you the best NBA picks for tonight. Don't miss our odds breakdown.

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Free NBA Pick: Over 213½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

NBA Odds Overview
NBA odds have come out with this total at 212 -110 like at Bookmaker. For my NBA pick for Tuesday, I am going to back over this total as a bit of a contrarian play, considering how much these two teams have gone under the total recently. Combined for this matchup they are due for a really high scoring game, and there are some really good statistics to back this up.

 

Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is averaging 105.3 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the field, and allowing 107.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field. For the most part, it looks like the Kings are a tailor-made team to usually go over the total, or so it would seem. The odds makers tend to make games with Sacramento extremely high on the total line because of their up-tempo offense and lack of defense, but in their last 10 games they have actually gone under the total seven of those times and on the year they are 14-18 on the over and 8-8 O/U on away games. This may seem surprising, that they have hit the under more this year, but that's what happens when odds makers set a total like this one today, pretty high. Offensively, Sacramento ranks third in the league in scoring offense and second in the league in points in the paint at 47.8 per contest, courteous of DeMarcus Cousins. They also have nice statistics ranking seventh in shooting efficiency, sixth in overall shooting percentage and seventh in shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Defensively, they are a mess and don't really do anything well ranking in the bottom of the league in most categories. Because of this, I expect the Mavericks to do a lot of damage tonight, and for the Kings to keep up with their up tempo. Recent trends aside, I expect the Kings to score enough in this game in what will be really up and down all night.

 

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is averaging 101.5 points per game while shooting 44.3% from the field, and allowing 101.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field. Like Sacramento, they have been a bit overvalued this season when it comes to the total line going 15-19 for their over under totals. Also, like Sacramento, recently in their last 10 games they haven't gone over the total very much doing it just three times in that span. At home it hasn't been much different, as the Mavericks are 4-12 on their over to under totals in Dallas. Offensively, the Mavericks have been mostly just subpar this year except for beyond the arc where they like to shoot the ball averaging 27.8 shots per game from distance, making 9.6 of them which ranks sixth in the NBA. That is their most impressive statistic, and after that they rank in about the middle of the league in most categories. Defensively, they also don't have many outstanding statistics but they do limit points in the paint which could be a point of contention. With the recent trend of under the total being so prevalent, I look for them to score a ton tonight, and as mentioned, buck the recent trend.

This total is not off the charts, but with the recent under the total trend of these teams, it is surprising. Be that as it may for one of your NBA picks, I recommend backing the over even with this high total and look for the Kings and Mavs to put up silly numbers tonight.

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