NBA Picks: Lock Spurs & 'Over' as We Follow the Trends Against Memphis

Darin Zank

Thursday, December 3, 2015 3:44 PM GMT

San Antonio doesn't just win games, it covers spreads, going 5-2 against the NBA odds over its last seven outings. Can the Spurs cover a short spread on the road against the Grizzlies Thursday night?

Betting Odds
Most of Thursday's NBA odds market opened San Antonio at -2 over Memphis, with an OVER/UNDER of right around 187. In the early betting the whole market bumped the Spurs to -3.5, and dropped the total to as low as 183.5.

The home-dog Grizzlies could also be bet getting +145 on the NBA moneyline at JustBet.

 

The Situation
San Antonio (15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS) bounced back from a close loss at Chicago Monday night to pound Milwaukee Wednesday night 95-70, covering as a 12-point favorite. The Spurs led by 10 points at the half, then held the Bucks to just 32 points in the second half, even while resting their starters.

On the night San Antonio only shot 41 percent from the field, but stymied Milwaukee into 34 percent shooting. The Spurs also committed just 10 turnovers, while forcing the Bucks into 17.

San Antonio is now 5-2 ATS over its last seven games, covering five spreads of seven points or more.

Memphis (11-8 SU, 9-10), meanwhile, has won two in a row, and four of its last five, after popping the Pelicans in New Orleans Tuesday night 113-104. The Grizzlies trailed by 14 in the second quarter, rallied back to take an 11-point lead in the third quarter, then held on from there, winning outright as a one-point dog.

For the night Memphis shot 48 percent from the floor, hit 25 of 26 free-throws and turned the ball over just six times, after committing 26 turnovers against Philadelphia Sunday.

The Grizz are now 6-3 ATS over their last nine games.

 

Spurs-Grizz Recent History
San Antonio took the first meeting between these teams this season two weeks ago 92-82, covering as an eight-point favorite at home. The Spurs led that game by 14 points at the half, let Memphis creep to within six points with a minute to go, but secured the victory and the cover on a Kawhi Leonard 3-pointer with 20 seconds left.

San Antonio shot 47 percent from the floor that night, held the Grizzlies to 43 percent shooting and won the battle on the glass by a 48-37 margin.

Spurs F LaMarcus Aldridge missed that game with a sprained ankle.

That game also played UNDER a total of 190.

Last season these teams split four meetings, each winning once on the others' home court. Those four games split the totals 2-2.

 

Spurs-Grizzlies Totals Trends
San Antonio is 13-5 on the UNDERS this season, as Spurs games have averaged 187 points.

Memphis is 11-8 on the UNDERS, as Grizz games have averaged 197 points.

The last five meetings in this series – eliminating three overtime periods the teams played in a Memphis victory last season - have averaged 194 total points,

 

Final Analysis
San Antonio shoots the ball better than Memphis, plays better defense and does a better job on the boards. And the regulars got plenty of rest Wednesday night. We have no choice, really, other than to take the Spurs. Also, the last five meetings in this series averaged 10 more points than the total on this game, so we're thinking OVER as our NBA pick for tonight.

NBA Picks: San Antonio -3 & OVER 182.5 at BetOnline