NBA Picks: Lock Spurs -10 at Home Against Surging Hornets

Charles Stark

Saturday, November 7, 2015 1:51 AM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015 1:51 AM GMT

When the Hornets visit the Spurs on Saturday I'm anticipating a game that is going to be very hard fought defensively. I also don't expect an up-and-down fast-paced affair. With the way this game matches up though I like for San Antonio to handle business and beat Charlotte by double digits.

Betting Odds
NBA odds makers came out with this game at -10.5 in favor of the Spurs. At first glance I thought this was a little high but then when I started breaking down the matchup's it started to make sense. San Antonio matches up well defensively against Charlotte and should limit their scoring tonight. Right now the line has settled at -10 and you can still get good odds at this number like at Pinnacle at -105. For one of my NBA picks today I'm going to lay the big number and take San Antonio.

 

Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte comes in averaging 103.6 points per game, shooting 43.8% from the field, and 36.9% from beyond the arc. I think they are a pretty well coached team on the offensive end, and they have shot outside at distance at a very high rate averaging 10.4 per game which ranks third in the NBA. That is in proportion with how many threes they put which is 28.2 per game which ranks fourth in the NBA. They might have to rely a little bit more on Al Jefferson and some interior points though if they're going to compete with the Spurs, one of the best teams in the NBA at defending beyond the arc.

Defensively Charlotte allows 98.8 points per game, 44.5% shooting from the field, and 35.9% from beyond the arc. They matchup pretty well with San Antonio's strength of getting points in the paint with LaMarcus Aldridge and Tim Duncan only allowing 38.8 points per game which ranks fifth in the NBA. They are also one of the better teams in keeping their opponents rebounds to a minimum allowing just 47.4 per game which ranks second in the NBA. I think defensively will be sufficient but I think they're going to struggle a lot scoring points.

 

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio comes in averaging 99.2 points per game, shooting 46.7% from the field, and 33% from distance. They have not pushed the pace very much this early in the season and are only putting up 84.4 shots per game which ranks 18th in the NBA. But what they do put up usually goes in as they rank seventh in the NBA in shooting efficiency. Surprisingly they have not attempted a lot of three-point shots this season and rank in the bottom part of the league at just 18 per game, but it is still early in the season so I am anticipating that average to go up.

Defensively San Antonio is allowing 92 points per game, 41.6% from the field, and 30% from beyond the arc. They have been guarding the perimeter particularly well and not allowing teams to shoot a lot from distance ranking third in the NBA in opponent three-point attempts. Right now they rank first in opponents three pointers made at just six per game. If any team knows the value of defense it is San Antonio and it always amazes me how they always seem to be able to bring a solid defensive effort every night.

Neither of these teams has really gone out and run up and down the court up-tempo consistently this season. There have been flashes of it but for the most part the Spurs have stopped a lot of transition while focusing on their half-court defense, and Charlotte has been decent in defending the paint. I think the Spurs might push a little bit more up-tempo in this game and take advantage of some good matchup's, for one of your NBA picks look for them to roll tonight against the Hornets.

NBA Picks: Spurs -10 at Heritage

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