NBA Picks: Lock Nuggets to Pull an Upset Over Phoenix Suns

Charles Stark

Friday, November 20, 2015 12:35 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 12:35 PM GMT

The Phoenix Suns will visit the Denver Nuggets, the NBA odds have put the Suns as the road favorite on this game, check this article before you make a bet on the game.

Betting Odds
NBA odds makers have come out with the Suns at a -2.5 favorite, but for me the value is with the Nuggets.  For my selection of the day I am going to back Denver to hang in this game the entire way and possibly pull off the upset. 

Updated Odds to Win Western Conference

Phoenix Suns
The Suns come in averaging 105 points per game, shooting 44.1% from the field, and 37% from beyond the arc.  All solid offensive numbers and it seems their two point guard set of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight is producing positive results.  Surprisingly they also rank first in the NBA in total rebounds per game and 58.1 per contest, so it seems the acquisition of Tyson Chandler has been a positive one.  Still, they don't move the ball all that great even with two playmakers at the point only averaging just over 19 assists per game which ranks 25th in the NBA.

Defensively the Suns are allowing 100.5 points per game, 45.3% shooting from the field, and 34.1% from beyond the arc.  Definitely not great numbers overall and they have been the benefactors of some poor free throw shooting by their opponent ranking first in the NBA in opponent free throw shooting percentage, an arbitrary statistic.  Last time in this matchup Denver simply couldn't knock down a shot, don't look for that same scenario tonight.

 

Denver Nuggets
Denver is averaging 99.7 points per game, shooting 43.3% from the field, and 34% from beyond the arc.  Danilo Gallinari is starting to look like his old self and they have been playing much better after a slow start to the season.  Emmanuel Mudiay is starting to develop into a solid point guard and it seems Denver should be able compete a bit in the Western Conference.  Far from a playoff team they should be in a good spot tonight coming back from a three game road stretch that started in Phoenix.  In that game against the Suns they were just horrible all around offensively but that shouldn't have been much of a surprise with them coming off a back to back while the Suns were off of rest in the middle of a four game home stand.

Defensively Denver is allowing 103.1 points per game, 45.1% shooting from the field, and 37.3% from beyond the arc.  Like Phoenix there is definitely room for them to improve and play well defensively which is something that has eluded Denver as a franchise this past decade.  They don't do anything particular well nor do they do anything horribly but they do rank in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories.  They have to find any consistency on this end but having played the Suns just last week should help them prepare for tonight.

Denver is starting to turn things around and coming back home tonight should be a boost.  I recommend for one of your NBA picks to take the points and the Nuggets and look for a much different game than they played last week in Phoenix.

NBA Pick: Nuggets +2.5 at Bet365

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882645, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here