NBA Picks: Lock Clippers +10 In Rivalry Game vs. Warriors

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, March 23, 2016 5:05 PM GMT

Warriors have won the L5 meetings SU; let’s dig in & make our NBA pick against a team that looks to be slowing down mentally. This team can be beat if you do some thinking.

Odds Overview
Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (63-7 SU, 39-29-2 ATS) play host to the Los Angeles Clippers (43-26 SU, 32-24-3 ATS) at ORACLE Arena in Oakland on Wednesday night in the fourth and final Regular Season meeting between these two Pacific Division teams this season, with the Warriors having won all three of the meetings, but by just 4, 7 and 3 points. NBA odds boards offshore have opened the Warriors up as solid 10-point favorites (Bookmaker) in this game with the Total (Points) opening up at 225½ (Bookmaker). The Money Line (Winner) odds see Golden State priced at -535 (Pinnacle) with the visiting Los Angeles Clippers at +450 on the takeback as the big underdog.

 

Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers (21-14 SU Road, 17-16-2 ATS Road) and Head Coach Doc Rivers sit in 4th place in the Western Conference and three games ahead of the 5th-place Memphis Grizzlies (41-30), and that matters as the 4th- and 5tg-place teams meet in Round 1 and the fourth-place team (obviously) gets that precious Homecourt advantage in the series. The Clippers (4-6 L10) continue to be without Blake Griffin (Quadricep) but Head Coach Rivers says the Forward is progressing and reportedly “looks better” but that there still is no timetable for his return. In their last game, Los Angeles fell to the Pelican sin New Orleans on Sunday night, 109-015, as Jrue Holiday scored 22 points to carry the hosts who learned that they would be without superstar Anthony Davis for the rest of the season. PG Chris Paul and SG JJ Reddick each scored 24 points for the Clippers (33/1 to win NBA Championship, SkyBet) in the setback for a tired team which was playing its second game in less than 24 hours.

Los Angeles will have 2 Days of Rest (2-7-1 ATS on 2 Days Rest) for this affair against the defending NBA champions, but as you can see, the Clips Point Spread record in that specific spot this season is ugly. Too much rest makes DeAndre a dull boy. On the Injury front, SF Jeff Green (Head) is listed as Questionable for wednesday, SF Branden Dawson (Personal) is Out Indefinitely and the aforementioned PF Griffin (Quadricep) is expected back later this month, and the Clippers will definitely need the athletic Oklahoma-product come NBA Playoffs time next month.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors (32-0 SU Home, 18-14-0 ATS Home) and Head Coach Steve Kerr keep plugging right along (8-2 SU) and never before has it seemed like the Media, Pundits, Fans and Sports Writers have already handed a team an NBA Championship, but Golden State (10/11 to win NBA Championship, Ladbrokes) seems like it has and the Warriors are priced like they already won it as the Home-court advantage will be theirs throughout the NBA Playoffs, and that’s saying something when you’re 32-0 at Home and it’s Spring already. But let’s not forget the Western Conference’s 2nd-place team, the San Antonio Spurs, who are 35-0 at Home and just beat Curry and the Warriors (14-1 SU vs. Pacific Division) in the Lone Star State on Saturday night in Ali-Frazier II. The NBA champions will still be determined in the next three months, and yes, even the representative out of the Eastern Conference could win it all.

Check yourself and the Hype levels you (and we) have all accepted in these Crazy Days. It’s overkill. In their last game, the Splash Brothers Curry (17 points) and Klay Thompson (19 points) played a lackluster game in Minneapolis and almost lost to the Timberwolves and super Rookie Karl-Anthony Towns (24 points, 11 rebounds). Fellow Warriors All-Star F Draymond Green (24 points) was his steady self, and although Curry will win the NBA MVP Award going away this season and Klay Thompson may be the most underrated player in the league, it’s Michigan State-product Green who is the league and the Warriors’ (115.3 AF-104.2 AA) real MVP as Possessions equal points and the man also scores his share of those, and at crucial times as he did last night. Gunners Curry and Thompson may be able to pop from halfcourt, but Draymond Green is the real MVP in the NBA. Ask Steph. On the Injury front, Warriors C Andrew Bogut (Toe) is listed as Questionable, SF Andre Iguodala (Ankle) is expected back in early April while C Festus Ezeli and SF Kevin Looney (Hip) are both Out Indefinitely.

 

Trends, Recent Relevant Series Information and Pick
In the L10 meetings in this series, both teams are 5-5 ATS with Golden State having W5 straight SU and 7-3 SU in those 10. The Total is also split at 5-5 with 4 of the L6 going Under including the last meeting in Lalaland which saw 227 points (GSW 115-112), but still went Under by 1 point (228). For awhile it seemed that these Warriors were a bet-on team at Home (ATS) but that ship has sailed as the team looks tired at times now and some of the shots that were falling before for Curry and Thompson just aren’t now as legs get tired in March. And sports are all about Legs for those thinking otherwise.

As a wrestler, a boxer, a hockey player, a football player or a soccer player about Legs. And besides Practice (which makes perfect), Stephen Curry’s legs are the reason why he has made himself into the best shooter in the history of the sport. And not Arms and Hands and Eyesight and nerves, which are all also deadly important, but Legs. Legs are so underrated. Anyway, off the Psychiatrist’s couch and back to the handicap buster and honestly, this is not a great game to bet on and the 10 points seems large, even without Griffin for the Clippers who seems to be a hindrance at times. Golden State (14-1 SU vs. Pacific Division) will care about keeping their Home-court record spotless, and should get out to their obligatory double-digit lead but caring about crunching a high-scoring team like the Clippers in this spot after a three-game Road trip probably won’t matter much to the Warriors (40-29-1 O/U). This one may be best watched as the numbers are Point Spread and Totals numbers seem spot on. In this case, we are definitely backing up the Clippers as our NBA Pick.

Final Score Prediction: Warriors 115 Clippers 110

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Free NBA Pick: Clippers +10 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes