NBA Picks: Lock Bucks To Cover 1-Point Spread Against Jazz

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 20, 2016 2:05 PM GMT

The Jazz are headed into Milwaukee to try and salvage any chance they have at making the playoffs. The NBA Odds were a little late coming out for this one, but the books have the Bucks as -1 favs.

Jazz Bounce Back?
The Jazz were seemingly on the way back up before last night’s loss. They had won four straight games both SU and ATS, and while three of those games were against sub par opponents, one of them was against the Cavaliers. The Bucks on the other hand have been playing well recently too, and a big reason for that has been the sure dominance of Giannis Antetokounmpo. They have won four of their last five games SU and three of their last five games ATS.

The Bucks have had a full two days off in between tonight and their last game, and they have been quite successful during those games this season. When Milwaukee plays after 2-3 days off, they are 8-6-1 ATS, but the Jazz have been even better than that on no rest. Utah is 9-6 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Plus, unlike most teams who do well at the beginning of the season on no rest and then falter once back to backs get tougher, Utah is 4-2 ATS in their last six back to backs.

However, looking even deeper, the Jazz have had the luxury of playing a lot of those games off the back to back at home, which is obviously much easier than playing a road to road or home to road back to back. In games where they play on the road on no rest, the Jazz are only 2-4 ATS in their last six games under those circumstances.

 

The Sharp Pick
One big trend working against the Jazz in this one is their record as a road underdog. Even though they have been solid on no rest, the Jazz have been one of the worst teams in the NBA odds boards this season as a road dog. They are 8-16 ATS when playing as a road dog, and they are 14-19 ATS playing as an underdog all together.

However, the biggest trend working against Utah tonight despite being on the back to back has been their record against the East when playing on the road. Utah is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Eastern Conference, and while the Bucks are definitely not the toughest Eastern Conference opponent, I don’t see many ways the Jazz are going to slow down Antetokounmpo tonight.

While the Jazz will have the advantage on the glass tonight with their big man combo or Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, the Bucks have been on rest and have the advantage on the wings. Even though the Bucks lost their first game against the Jazz this season, that one was of course in Utah, but the Bucks won ATS.

This has been the story of Utah’s season. The Jazz are 11-23 SU on the road and 14-19 ATS this season when playing on the road, compared to 22-13 SU and 19-14 ATS when playing at home. I’m following the trends, even if they are basic, and hopefully the Bucks will be a valuable NBA picks tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883501, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,92,238,169], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Bucks -1.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes