NBA Picks: Lay The Points & Back Pistons To Bounce Back vs. Nuggets

Charles Stark

Saturday, January 23, 2016 1:27 PM GMT

Tonight, the Pistons travel to Denver and are just laying a few points as a small favorite, and I like how they matchup with the Nuggets. Don't miss our best NBA picks for the night.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883121, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Pistons -3
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

NBA Odds Overview
NBA odds boards have Detroit as a small -3 favorite like at Pinnacle -105. For my NBA pick today, I will take them laying the small number because I like them to win this game by close to double digits. This is a well coached Pistons team that should be able to take advantage of the matchups against Denver who has struggled this past month.

 

Detroit Pistons
Detroit is averaging 101.9 points per game while shooting 43.2% from the field, and allowing 100.2 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field. So far on the season, they are 23-18-2 against the spread overall but only 9-12-1 on the road. There has been a lot of news recently about the poor free throw shooting of Andre Drummond but that should be far from the focus tonight. Stan Van Gundy has done an excellent job with this team and is starting to get them where he wants them by putting up a lot of three's, defending the perimeter, and dominating the paint. Offensively, their percentages are not that great as they only average 33.4% and 47.3% from beyond the arc and in their two point shooting respectively. Where they make up for the lack of percentages is threefold and that one, they push tempo an average 88.6 field goal attempts per game which ranks second in the league, two, they averaged 44.8 points in the paint which ranks sixth in the NBA, and three, they lead the league averaging 58.4 rebounds per game. Defensively, their focus has been on limiting points from distance as they allow opponents just 34.9% from beyond the arc which ranks in about the middle of the league. However, they only allow 20.1 attempts from distance which ranks second in the league, with opponents making seven per game which ranks fourth in the league. Matchup wise, I think Denver is going to have trouble scoring against Detroit tonight.

 

Denver Nuggets
Denver is averaging 99.4 points per game while shooting 43.2% from the field, and allowing 103.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field. On the season, they are 21-20-2 against the spread overall, but mirror Detroit with 9-12-1 record at home. Offensively, they do share the ball well averaging 22.4 assists per game, but they don't really have any dominant scorers. Percentagewise, they are a bit similar to Detroit and that they do attempt a lot of field goals per game averaging 85 per contest, but statistically, they are not very efficient. On the season, Denver is shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc and 46.9% on their two point shots, and overall, mostly rank in the bottom part of the league in every offensive category. The main issue for me in going against them tonight is how poor they have been defensively. They rank in the bottom five of the league and opponent shooting efficiency, opponent shooting percentage, and opponent effective field-goal percentage. This will be an issue tonight against a Detroit team that gets up and down the floor well and put up a lot of shots. 

This a good game to lay the small number on the better team. Denver has really struggled over the last few weeks, and I don't expect things to get easier for them tonight against Detroit. For one of your NBA picks, I recommend grabbing Detroit minus the small number to take care of business tonight, great bounce back spot for the Pistons.