NBA Picks: Lakers vs. Pistons Total Line is Being Overvalued by Books

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, December 6, 2015 6:55 PM GMT

Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015 6:55 PM GMT

After another perfect evening of NBA Picks, for Sunday evening's NBA Odds, I have found a play on the Lakers & Pistons that looks like a perfect chance to end the week on another high note.

Offensive Issues
This subtitle should probably ready ‘Good Kobe-Bad Kobe’ because that has been the driving force on getting the Lakers their few wins this season. There have even been instances where Kobe Bryant was good and the Lakers still couldn’t get a win, and tonight against the Pistons in the Motor City, the Lakers are once again big underdogs on our NBA Odds board of +9, with a total of 197.

The Lakers have the worst Offensive Efficiency (ORtg) in the league outside of Brooklyn and Philadelphia, and Detroit is not far ahead of them ranking 23rd in the league tied with new York at 99.1. Needless to say, neither one of these teams excite you much on offense, and while both have some great talent, both also have talent that can be prone to nights where they shoot 25 percent from the floor. We all know who that is for LA, but for the Pistons it’s Reggie Jackson.

The young Detroit point guard has been fantastic at times this season, but he has also had games like the first meeting against the Lakers, where he shot 4-11 for nine points and only 24 minutes. However, his defense has also been a pleasant surprise this season. Detroit’s opponents have an ORtg 99.4 with Jackson on the court, and 105.7 when he sits. If he and the rest of the Pistons can bring the defense tonight at home, we need to quickly follow the direction that the number has been moving so far this morning. Andre Drummond will dominate in the paint and limiting the Lakers’ second chance opportunities, and with how slow the game could be played, the under looks like the play.

 

The Sharp Pick
While the spread is enticing to say the least, considering the Lakers are only 4-8 ATS away from home this season, LA is also a respectable 4-3 ATS on the road against the Eastern Conference this year. That is why I am leaning towards the total, and even though the number has dropped from 199 to now 197, the value is still presenting itself to play the under on this early evening start in Detroit. Traditionally, Sunday games that start earlier are almost always lower scoring. Last season we nailed the under for a while on Sunday afternoon and evenings, and I am going at it again tonight.

The first meeting these two played in LA this season, the Lakers won the game and held Detroit to only 85 points. While I expect the Pistons to actually show up for this game, these two teams have cashed the under at a combined 24-15 this season, and even though it doesn’t mean as much, the under is 3-0 in their last three meetings, and it’s cashed at 8-2 in these two teams’ last 10 games against one another.

The under is 11-4 in the Lakers’ last 15 games this season, and while they are still giving up over 105 points per game this season, the Pistons play at the 22nd slowest pace in the NBA this year, so I doubt they will go crazy and score 110 points. Take the under with your NBA Picks for the value in this one, and congrats if you got the number closer to where it opened.

Free NBA Pick: Lakers & Pistons UNDER 197

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