Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 4 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, with the opening tip scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
Also check out my NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Spurs Game 5
Missing the mark
New York was held to season lows in knocking down just three shots on 11 attempts from beyond the arc last Saturday, as it suffered a 82-71 defeat to Indiana as five-point road underdogs in Game 3, while going well UNDER the betting total of 183.
The Knicks are 2-4 straight up (SU) and 0-6 against the spread (ATS) when revenging a loss where it scored 85 points or less, while the OVER is 5-1 in that situation.
Crashing the glass
Indiana owns a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series, as it continues to dominate opponents on the glass—finishing with a 53-40 overall advantage in rebounding last time out.
The Pacers were second in the NBA in total rebounding during the regular season, while pacing all teams in averaging 12.6 boards on the offensive end, which led to numerous second-chance opportunities.
Anthony Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS when leading a playoff series, with the OVER cashing in six of those eight opportunities.
New York star Carmelo Anthony led the league in scoring during the regular season, but he’s shot just 39.7 percent in six games (including the regular season) when facing off against the Pacers.
He has led the Knicks in scoring in all nine postseason games to this point, which isn’t likely to change with Sixth Man of the Year J.R. Smith struggling with his game, while also trying to fight through an illness.
NBA handicappers may elect to back the Pacers when looking over the betting lines, considering they’ve gone 4-0 SUATS at home in the playoffs—winning by an average of 16.5 points per game.
Indiana is also 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points dating back to the start of the regular season.
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their NBA picks Tuesday, as the OVER is 5-1 when the Pacers play at home with a number between 170 and 179.5, while the Knicks haven’t tipped off in that particular point range away from Madison Square Garden since at least 2010-11.
NBA Pick: Over 179.5