NBA Picks: Kings vs. Thunder Odds Analysis

Joe Freda

Monday, April 15, 2013 11:27 AM GMT

Monday, Apr. 15, 2013 11:27 AM GMT

The Thunder look to keep things rolling tonight, as they welcome in the Sacramento Kings. Join us as we preview this matchup to decide where the best value lies for our NBA picks.

The Oklahoma City Thunder cashed at 3-0 ATS in last week’s trio of road games, holding their foes to 89 PPG. Monday’s NBA action has Scott Brooks’ squad returning home against the Sacramento Kings, who have seen the OVER collect at 4-1 in their last five matchups.

Will the Thunder stay hot for a big win here or does a play on the ‘total’ have the best value?

Thunder, Westbrook thrash Blazers

Oklahoma City’s latest win came in Friday’s 106-90 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers, cashing as a 9 ½-point road favorite. The Thunder connected from the floor at a 51.9 percent clip, leading by as many as 22 points.

Thunder guard Russell Westbrook piled in 33 points, while forward Kevin Durant logged six of his side’s 16 assists. Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka and Hasheem Thabeet grabbed six boards each, with Thabeet adding four blocks. 

The duel’s combined 196 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 206, moving the UNDER to 9-3 over the last 12 games for Durant and Co. Oklahoma City’s Reggie Jackson came away with 17 points off the bench, uniting with bench mate Ronnie Brewer for three steals.

Can the Thunder beat the Heat in a seven game playoffs series?

Kings, Aldrich downed in Houston

Sacramento was held to 39 percent field shooting in Sunday’s 121-100 defeat to the Houston Rockets, failing to collect as a 10 ½-point road dog. The Kings were outscored in paint points, 56-44, while being edged in rebounds, 46-45. 

Kings mates Isaiah Thomas and Tyreke Evans logged 10 points each, while uniting for 11 assists. Sacramento’s Cole Aldrich notched a team-high 12 boards off the bench, knocking down 6-of-7 shots from the floor.

The contest’s combined 221 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 218 ½, with the Kings hitting 14-of-17 free throws. Aldrich added four of his squad’s 10 blocks, while Sacramento allowed Houston to drain 13-of-27 buckets beyond the arc.

[gameodds]5/224840/43/us[/gameodds]

Back the UNDER in OKC 

The NBA odds makers at Bookmaker.eu opened Oklahoma City as a 15-point home favorite, while first listing the ‘total’ at 213 ½. Both squads will have one day off before finishing the season on Wednesday’s league slate, with Oklahoma City hosting the Milwaukee Bucks and Sacramento returning home to host the Los Angeles Clippers.

I am adding a ticket on the UNDER in this spot for Monday’s NBA picks, sensing the ‘total’ has been set too high here. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last five home dates, while going 8-1-2 in the team’s last 11 contests against Western Conference foes. 

Sacramento managed to put up 103 points in December’s visit against the Thunder, but should face some tighter defense this time around. The Thunder have allowed visitors to a 34 percent mark from three-point land all year, while coming in sharp with two days of rest. 

Oklahoma City outclasses the Kings here and should go on its share of scoring runs, but has seen the UNDER go 5-2 in its last seven spots against rivals that have below a .400 record. Look for another UNDER ticket to collect in this spot, adding to the 3-2 mark for the wager in the last five meetings between these foes. 

Free NBA Pick:  UNDER 213 ½ at Bookmaker.eu

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