NBA Picks: Kings vs. Heat

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, February 26, 2013 12:57 PM GMT

Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2013 12:57 PM GMT

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA betting line for this non-conference matchup between the Sacramento Kings and the Miami Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena. Where should you look to go with your NBA picks?


The Miami Heat have absolutely dominated the Sacramento Kings in South Beach historically, which will likely keep the league’s longest active winning streak intact Tuesday night.

Playing absolutely no defense

Sacramento has dropped its last five games by allowing 114.2 points per game in that span, as it tries to bounce back from a 110-95 setback to the New Orleans Hornets as seven-point road underdogs Sunday. 

The Kings are 9-14-2 against the spread (ATS) after allowing 105 points or more during the 2012-13 pro basketball season, while they’ve lost and failed to cover the spread in both games played with a total of 210 or higher.

Streaking 

Miami has won its last 11 games by an average of 12.9 points per game, as its offense has knocked down 52.1 percent of its shots in that span. 

The Heat have been known to come alive in the month of February—posting a 31-6 straight-up record and 23-14 ATS mark since Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade joined forces.

Literally no chance of winning this game

NBA handicappers definitely shouldn’t entertain the idea of playing the Kings on the moneyline when looking at the high-priced number on the SBR Odds page, considering they’ve lost 16 of the last 17 meetings in this series.

Sacramento has dropped the last eight by an average margin of 19.5 points per game, while allowing Miami to score 100 or more points in the last 11 meetings.

The Heat have compiled a 21-3 all-time home record (.875) against the Kings, which happens to be their highest overall winning percentage in that situation versus any NBA team.

Oddsmakers get lazy?

I definitely believe the NBA odds makers may have gotten a little lazy in sending out this number, as the Heat average 107.4 points per game at home, while the Kings manage to put up just 92.5 away from Sleep Train Arena.

It’s still important to note that Miami hasn’t been a favorite of 15.5 or more points this season, while Sacramento hasn’t been given that many points in its previous 55 games.

[gameodds]5/219513/43/us[/gameodds] 

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Heat as one of their sports picks, as they should be properly motivated to cover this double-digit number due to their current winning streak, while the Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

NBA Pick:  Miami Heat -15.5 at 5Dimes
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