Bucks Have Bite, But Take OVER When Spurs Come to Town

Jason Lake

Friday, November 23, 2018 7:10 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 23, 2018 7:10 PM UTC

The OVER got a big early boost this year, and it’s still the right NBA pick for Saturday’s game between the San Antonio Spurs and the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Nov. 22: 6-6 ATS, 1-1 Totals

San Antonio (8-9 SU and ATS) vs. Milwaukee (13-4 SU, 11-5-1 ATS)Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, MilwaukeeFree NBA Pick: OVERBest Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568853, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,1275,999991,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

There are so many things to like about the Milwaukee Bucks. They’ve got the best offense in the NBA, racking up 113.5 points per 100 possessions. They’re No. 3 on defense at 101.3 points allowed/100. They’ve got one of this year’s leading MVP candidates in Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-8.6 BPM). And from a betting perspective, the Bucks are raking in the dough, taking advantage of their small-market status in the soft Eastern Conference.

But we can’t recommend them for your NBA picks this Saturday when they host the San Antonio Spurs. Not with the very early odds giving the Spurs 9.5 points. FiveThirtyEight project the Bucks as 9-point favorites, so if their special Elo-based formula is accurate, there isn’t any betting value on either side against the spread. Okay, thanks for reading, catch you next time.

Memories of Atlanta

Pish-tosh. We’re going to make a pick, because that’s what we do here at the ranch. And our pick is the OVER, with an early total of 220 on the NBA odds board at press time. The Bucks have the OVER at 13-4 this year, more than any other team thus far; the Spurs aren’t the ideal dance partner at 9-8, but at least they’re not dragging the scores down too low with their old-school offense.

It isn’t just Antetokounmpo that stirs the drink in Milwaukee. Khris Middleton (plus-4.8 BPM), Brook Lopez (plus-3.8 BPM) and Eric Bledsoe (plus-5.6 BPM) are all contributing at a high level, as is Pat Connaughton (plus-4.4 BPM) in a reserve role. Throw in Malcom Brogdon (plus-0.9 BPM), and you’ve got all five Milwaukee starters scoring double digits per game. Head coach Mike Budenholzer pushed the Atlanta Hawks to the top of the East; he’s nearly there with the Bucks in his first year of employment.

Middle Man

The Spurs are bascially the anti-Bucks, but it hasn’t kept them from scoring 107.3 points per 100 possessions (No. 11 overall). And their current roster hardly resembles the defensively stout teams we’re used to seeing with Gregg Popovich on the sidelines. San Antonio are No. 21 in defensive efficiency thus far at 107.8 points allowed/100, just ahead of the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls. Yeesh.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

360 FINISH 🔥🔥🔥@DeMar_DeRozan is just ridiculous. #GoSpursGo pic.twitter.com/45NatRMUB7

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) November 16, 2018
\n\n"}[/]


That’s what you get with DeMar DeRozan (plus-2.8 OBPM, minus-0.1 DPBM) running the show. After Kawhi Leonard forced his way out of town, Popovich has to work with what he’s got, and what he’s got is a mid-range specialist who’s bogarting all those long 2s from LaMarcus Aldridge (minus-2.4 BPM). Both teams are in action Friday, so they might be a bit tired for this matchup, but San Antonio have the OVER at 3-0 on zero days of rest. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

comment here