NBA Picks: Jazz vs. Mavericks

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 24, 2013 3:47 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 24, 2013 3:47 PM UTC

Will Dallas be able to hold off Utah tonight and cover the spread, or will the Jazz fly out of Dallas as victors?

NBA Picks: Jazz vs. Mavs

The Jazz head into Dallas tonight to play the Mavs, and the NBA Odds favor the Mavericks at -6 ½, with a total just above two hundred points at 200 ½. 

Jazz one day, gone the next

Utah has been playing ok this season, but recently they have seemed to drop off a cliff. They will show up and play well one night and then the next they will look like a lottery team. That’s probably why they are hovering around the 8th seed or out of the playoffs entirely this whole season.

They Jazz are especially hard to handicap on the road. Utah is only 14-21-1 ATS on the road this season, and that is one of many reasons why this spread is off limits for me. I do however like the total a lot in this one, as it sits just north of 200 points.

The Jazz are cashing the over on the road at a pretty good tip this season. The over has cashed at 19-16-1 when Utah is playing on the road this season, while Dallas coincidently cashes the over at home better than almost any team in the NBA at 20-11-2 on the year.

Dallas offensive explosion

The Dallas offense has been firing on all cylinders since Dirk Nowitzki is back to full health, and it is one of the reasons why I think they are such large favorites in this game. However, Utah has beaten and covered against Dallas in both of their meetings so far this season. Even though they were both at the beginning of the season and without Nowitzki playing, it says something about how the Jazz match up against the Mavs.

Dallas has no one to guard Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap. I expect both big men to have even bigger games tonight against Dallas. The Mavs are almost the worst rebounding team in the NBA, and I think the Jazz will be able to exploit that on both offense and defense.

However, the Mavs can score the ball too, and that and the above reasons are why I think a bet on the over is where the best value lies tonight.

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The Sharp Pick

Dallas is giving up over 102 points per game this season and still over 100 points when they play at home. Even though Utah has had their troubles on offense on the road, I don’t think they will have that issue tonight as they are rested.

In the last five games between these two in Dallas, all five of them have gone over the total. In their last ten games, the average total score is right at 201 points, and when the games are in Dallas, the scores are almost always higher than in Utah.

The over has also cashed in five of the last six times these two have played overall (last three games in Utah). I think Utah will bust out of their offense slump against the hapless Mavs defense tonight, so take the over for this NBA pick and look for a game well into the 200s.

My Pick: OVER 200 ½ at bet365

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