NBA Picks: Jazz vs. Bucks

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 4, 2013 4:08 PM GMT

Let's breakdown this matchup, as I share with you why I believe that both the total and spread hold value for NBA bettors tonight.


I couldn't help but to add an extra game to my daily NBA picks, as I believe that tonight's matchup between the Bucks and the Jazz is a potential goldmine.

Utah is a +4 ½ underdog in this one, and with some uncertainty with their big men, the total is at 201 1/2. Will Utah’s injury uncertainty be enough for you to lay the points with Milwaukee? Let’s have a quick look and see if the NBA odds have left us an edge.

[gameodds]5/220052/43/us[/gameodds]

Both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap seem like game time calls for tonight’s game for Utah. Both were “expected” to practice yesterday, but most people are “expected” to go to the bathroom six times a day, that doesn’t mean they do it.

Even though the Jazz have a load of good depth up front, if they are down even one guy, or if the guys playing aren’t as effective, this is all Milwaukee here. The Jazz are already bad ATS on the road this season at 10-18-1. Combine that with playing a fast paced team on the road that you don’t match up well against to begin with is not good. Both of them having ankle injuries hurts too, considering how much the Bucks like to get out and run in transition.My point is that even if they so play tonight, they will both be less than 10%. Millsap even admitted that when he comes back he will, “eventually just have to play through pain.” Against a team like Milwaukee, that is not what you want hearing from your front line guys.

The Bucks' backcourt is going to give Utah’s defense fits tonight. Utah already doesn’t play a whole lot of defense on the road, so for this one I’m adding two plays to my free picks. The Bucks seem like the play ATS tonight. Even though the jazz have covered four in a row against Milwaukee. Three of those were in Utah, and they date back to 2010.

The Jazz are only 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five road games, and the over has cashed in 11 of the last 16 times these two have played from Milwaukee. I see a fast game tonight with the Bucks winning and scoring easily.

My Picks: Bucks -4 ½ and OVER 201 ½ at 5Dimes 

Let my NBA Picks of the Day article help you round out your betting ticket.