NBA Picks: Huge Mismatch In 76ers vs. Warriors Game

Nikki Adams

Sunday, March 27, 2016 6:10 PM GMT

Philadelphia 76ers descend on Golden State Warriors tonight, in a game that’s unquestionably a mismatch on paper and the NBA Odds Board. Here’s our preview complete with NBA picks.

Philadelphia 76ers (9-64) vs. Golden State Warriors (65-7)
The Philadelphia 76ers are not only propping up the Eastern Conference, but they are rooted in the foot of the league table behind a woeful 9-64 SU record on the season, which includes a 6-30 SU mark at home and a 3-34 mark on the road. Tonight, the 76ers have the daunting task of taking on the defending champions Golden State in Oakland, where the Warriors are a perfectly untouchable 34-0 SU on the season.

There couldn’t be two sides more polar opposite than the 76ers (9-64) and Warriors (65-7), and given their contrasting fortunes on the season is it any wonder the visitors from Philly are trading as the massive road underdogs?

Well, massive is an understatement. Rather ridiculous, ludicrous, incongruous, absurd, outrageous…are some other adjectives that come to mind and feel more appropriate. Take your pick. But we digress here…

Odds makers opened this game with the 76ers trading at +3750 to win straight up. Since open doors they have come down quite dramatically in money line betting markets, anywhere from +1800 (BetOnline) to +3300 (5Dimes). A drop in NBA Odds that might be partly down to the volume of betting coming down the wire with 66.1% of consensus bets going towards Philly.

Surely, that’s just silly money betting, a case of NBA odds too tempting to ignore without a tickle? Let’s face it when $100 bet return $3750.00 (plus your stake) in the event of winning bet, it’s not hard to see the charm.  What the chances of such a bet actually paying out are is the proper question though. It’s not rocket science either: slim to none. The public can’t actually believe the 76ers are going to win in Oakland, where many a better team have come and gone away empty-handed.

At opening doors, books pegged the game on a 20.5-point line where it’s stayed put for the most part across sports betting platforms. A few have crept up to 21-points on the NBA odds board. The stability of the market is an indication of books getting it right with the NBA line, underscored by rather even public betting with an almost 50-50 split between the 76ers and Warriors to cover.

Still, it’s interesting the public is leaning slightly towards the visitors with 54.1% of the bets coming down the wire going towards the 76ers to cover. While just 45.9% of the bets coming down the wire are going towards the Warriors. Granted the 76ers lost narrowly to the Warriors (105-108) in January, when the defending champions popped in for a visit. Rising to the challenge so though is a whole lot easier with home court advantage than it is on the road.

Philadelphia 76ers are 33-39-1 ATS with a 10.5-point losing margin on average and a plus 1.1-point differential versus the spread. As away team, they are 18-19-0 ATS with a 10.5-point losing margin on average and a plus 0.5-point differential versus the spread.

Golden State Warriors are 40-30-2 ATS on the season with an 11.1-point winning margin on average and a plus1.0-point differential versus the spread. At home, they are 19-15-0 ATS with a 15.4-point winning margin on average and a plus 25-point differential versus the spread. Most recently, they are riding a three-game winning streak, two of which are back-to-back home wins over LA Clippers and Dallas. They’ve had a couple of days of rest and should be raring to go when they welcome the 76ers tonight.

 

NBA Betting Verdict
The Philadelphia 76ers might as well ship the W to Oakland, as the chances of masterminding the upset are slim to none – tempting though the NBA odds are. In all likelihood, the Golden State Warriors will improve to a whopping 35-0 SU mark when all is said and done. Betting on the home win unfortunately offers up no value for NBA bettors; it’s the price of being just that good.

That leaves us hanging on the spread for our value NBA Picks. The 20.5/21-point line is a rather heft line, more suited for college hoops rather than pro-basketball. Are the odds makers overinflating the hosts at the expense of the visitors? Certainly, does look that way with the public tipping the game towards the visitors. For our money though we’re going with the hosts on our NBA Picks. Even though it’s a hefty line, the visitors are riding an eight-game losing streak into this clash, which includes a three-game losing streak on the road. They also have zero rest ahead of this clash: the 76ers lost 105-108 to Portland last night. While they did cover as the hefty +15 road underdogs, doing it at the expense of the Warriors is no mean feat at the tail end of a gruelling road trip out west. The 76ers are 6-10-0 against the spread with no rest and an average of 12.4-point losing margin.

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Free NBA Pick:  Golden State Warriors -20.5 -105
Best Line Offered:  at 5Dimes