NBA Picks: How To Beat The Bookie On Raptors vs. Pacers Game 4

Friday, April 22, 2016 9:18 PM GMT

The Toronto Raptors crushed both the Indiana Pacers and the NBA odds in Game 3. Is there any reason for us to change horses for Saturday's Game 4 at the Fieldhouse?

Record as of April 22: 36-38-1 ATS, 6-3-1 Total

So, how do you like those Toronto Raptors now? They dropped the hammer on the Indiana Pacers Thursday night in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal, winning 101-85 as 1-point road dogs on the closing line. DeMarre Carroll played 35 minutes of quality two-way basketball for Toronto, scoring 17 points while helping limit Paul George to 25 points on 6-of-19 shooting, including 1-of-8 from downtown. That's why they paid Carroll the big bucks.

Game 4 is this Saturday at the Fieldhouse, and congratulations, Raptors: You finally get to perform on TNT~! Except you'll be starting at 3:00 PM Eastern. As we go to press, Toronto is available as a 1.5-point favorite on our NBA odds, and the early consensus was unanimous behind the Raps before dipping to 93 percent. Looks like another easy pick for us here at the ranch.


 

So Many Suckers on My Sacroiliac
Looks like it. This is no time to hit the cruise control button; if we want to keep our NBA picks sharp, we have to perform due diligence on every game. Are there any injuries of note? Apparently not. Indiana center Ian Mahinmi (16.6 PER, +2.4 BPM) and Toronto winger Terrence Ross (12.9 PER, –0.2 BPM) were both in action Thursday after being listed as questionable before Game 3. Mahinmi does appear limited by his sore back, though.

It would be nice if we could take a peek at Carroll (11.9 PER, +0.2 BPM) and his right knee. He missed half the regular season after having his knee scoped in early January; there might be some swelling and/or tenderness in there, and Carroll did seem a bit tired after logging all those minutes. Otherwise, it's all hands on deck for the Raptors.
 

It's Like a Rap-Sack Backpack
So what can the Pacers do to adjust for Game 4? They could re-insert Myles Turner (15.4 PER, –2.3 BPM) into the starting lineup, trying to take advantage of Luis Scola (13.6 PER, –1.2 BPM) at the 4-spot. Turner started the second half of Game 3 with the Raptors up by 17 points, and the winning margin was 16 points at the end.

The Pacers might also get some more friendly whistles from the referees in Game 4 after picking up three technical fouls on Thursday. But Indiana was given 33 free-throw attempts to Toronto's 16. You're not going to get much friendlier than that. And of course, George could hit more of those threes on Saturday. He probably will, but Carroll has been making it very difficult for him. We should also note that Kyle Lowry (22.1 PER, +6.8 BPM) and DeMar DeRozan (21.5 PER, +1.4 BPM) have yet to break out offensively in this series, although they have improved gradually since the opener. We'll stay the course for Game 4, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free NBA Pick: Raptors -1.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage