NBA Picks: Historical Trends Suggest Betting Hornets Over Mavs

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 5, 2015 4:34 PM GMT

Charlotte just hung 130 points on Chicago Tuesday night, but what are the odds the Hornets can come up with a repeat performance Thursday night in Dallas?

Hornets-Mavericks Betting Odds
Most of Thursday's NBA odds market opened Dallas at -4 over Charlotte, with a total of right around 197. In the early betting the spread was holding steady, while the total dropped a point, to 196.

Bettors who believe the Hornets might win this game outright could get +160 on the NBA moneyline at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Charlotte, after going 33-49 last season, went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 34. So far, the Hornets are 1-3, picking up their first victory Tuesday night against Chicago 130-105. Charlotte jumped out to a 17-point lead after one quarter, led by 22 at the half and later by 35, on the way to an easy victory as a four-point home dog.

The Hornets shot 52 percent from the field Tuesday, hit 14 of 23 shots from beyond the arc and 22 of 23 free-throws, on one of those night when everything goes right.

However, Charlotte began this season by scoring just 94, 94 and 92 points in losses to Miami, Atlanta and Atlanta again, and came nowhere close to shooting 50 percent in any of those games. So which Hornets team will show up tonight?

Dallas, after going 50-32 last season, began this season with a wins O/U of just 36. So far, the Mavericks are 2-2, after falling at home to Toronto Tuesday 102-91. The Mavs led by four points midway through the fourth quarter, but went cold from there, as the Raptors ended the game on a 20-5 run.

On the night Dallas shot just 38 percent from the floor, hit just seven of 23 shots from long range and committed 16 turnovers, missing ATS as a two-point home dog.

The Mavs opened this season with a 111-95 victory at Phoenix, taking that game outright as six-point dogs; they then lost to the Clippers 104-88, missing ATS while getting 12 points; they then beat the Lakers 103-93, covering as four-point favorites. So Dallas seems to be another one of these NBA teams that bounces from good to bad and back on a night-to-night-to-night basis. Which could bode well for the Mavs tonight.

 

Hornets-Mavs Recent Series
Dallas has dominated the series with Charlotte over the years, beating the Hornets 14 times in a row at home, sweeping the two meetings last season, by scores of 107-80 and 92-81. The Mavs covered that first meeting at -4 on the road, and the second meeting at -9 in Dallas.

The Mavericks outshot Charlotte in those two games combined by a lopsided margin of 49 percent to 38 percent.

Also, both those games played UNDER, averaging just 180 points per.

 

Totals Trends
Charlotte is 2-2 on the totals this season, as Hornets games have averaged 203 points, although that figure is a bit skewed because of Tuesday night's game. Charlotte's first three games averaged just 192 points.

Dallas is 1-3 on the totals, as Mavs games have averaged 197 points.

 

Hornets-Mavericks Betting Analysis
Charlotte just played its balls off Tuesday night, blowing out the Bulls, but in our minds a performance like that just sets a team up for a fade next time out. The Hornets probably won't shoot 52 percent from the floor tonight. On the other side of this match-up Dallas is coming off a poor performance, but that might just set the Mavs up for a bounce-back play. We like the Mavericks to continue their dominance of Charlotte tonight. Also, these teams played a pair of low-scoring games last season, so we're thinking UNDER with our Free NBA Picks.

NBA Picks: Dallas -4 (102) at Pinnacle & UNDER 196 (-105) at Heritage