NBA Picks: Heat vs. Spurs

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, March 31, 2013 1:15 PM GMT

This game doesn’t have the luster it would have had if the Heat didn’t lose to the Bulls on Wednesday night. How should we roll the proverbial dice with our sports picks on this one?

NBA Picks: Heat vs. Spurs

But even though the streak is dead, this game should be one of the better regular season games of the entire season, regardless of whose playing.

The NBA Odds for this one come in to favor the Spurs at -1, with a rather low total of 197 ½. Will Miami be able to beat the West’s best team, or will the Spurs protect home court against the Heat. This could very well be a Finals preview (I wanted it to be that way last season) so let’s break it down a bit further.

Banged up

Everyone is a little hurt at this point of the season, and if you’re not you’re either extremely lucky or a really bad team. The Heat did not have Mario Chalmers for their game against the Hornets on Friday night, while the Spurs will not have Manu Ginobli tonight due to a hamstring injury. Tony Parker is still a bit banged up as well, but he is considered probable for tonight I believe.

Unless Chalmers is still on crutches or something, I expect all available bodies to play tonight if capable. This should be a playoff style basketball game, and I think the city of San Antonio will be more than ready to welcome in Miami.

Match up

Without Ginobli, the Spurs’ bench will be hard pressed for offense tonight, which could be a problem. Guys like Stephen Jackson and others will have to step up in his stead, something the Spurs have done very well this season.

However without Ginobli, that tips the scales back to even in my eyes, I was planning on recommending the Spurs tonight laying one point, but without their 6th man tonight, I just can’t see the Spurs’ bench being productive.

This game means a lot more to Miami than it does San Antonio. Greg Popovich realizes the bigger picture. This is just a regular season game in the end. Therefore, without Ginobli playing this evening, I’m going a slightly different route with my NBA Picks.

[gameodds]5/223496/43-19-999996-92/us[/gameodds]

Get the scoop on how to bet the game between the Pistons and the Bulls~

The Sharp Pick

Because this is still a regular season game, I don’t think these two will bust out their defense too much. With that being said, I think the total being well under 200 points is going to be ripe for an over bet here tonight. The last two times these two have played one another, the total has gone over, and once this season already, but the big three of course did not play in that one.

Both teams are averaging over 103 points per game scored this season, and I would be very surprised if one or both of them were not in the 100-point range here tonight. The Spurs like to play fast at home, and the Heat will play right along. I think Tim Duncan and Parker will have excellent games while the Heat’s big three will as well.

Five of Miami’s last six road games went over the total, which is rare for them this season. Also, Miami is averaging 106 points per game against West opponents this season, while the Spurs score about 105 points per game against the East. The writing’s on the wall, folks. Take the over.

My Pick: OVER 197 ½ at Pinnacle