NBA Picks: Heat vs. Spurs in Game 5 of the NBA Finals

Jeff Grant

Friday, June 14, 2013 2:50 PM GMT

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have climbed above the betting total in the last two games of the 2013 NBA Finals, but I’m expecting a defensive battle to take place Sunday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA betting odds for Game 5 of this best-of-seven series at the AT&T Center, with the opening tip-off scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

Big Three awaken

Miami captured an impressive 109-93 victory over San Antonio as one-point road favorites in Game 4 Thursday night, while going OVER the betting total for a second consecutive contest.

Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade combined to score 85 points in the affair—their highest offensive output in any game during the 2013 NBA playoffs.

The Heat are now 35-15 straight up and 30-20 against the spread on the road since the start of the regular season.

Limiting turnovers

San Antonio still has a legitimate shot of winnings its fifth NBA title, as the series is tied at 2-2, but it must take care of the basketball to do so. The Spurs committed 19 turnovers last time out, which led directly to 23 points on the other end.

Tony Parker has been known to rise to the occasion in his postseason career, but he failed to score in the second half in Game 4 after putting up 15 points in the opening 12 minutes.

The Spurs point guard played just over 31 minutes on Thursday with a strained hamstring injury, but I’m expecting him to put it all on the line in a crucial Game 5.

Tied up in a playoff series

Since the start of the Big Three era in Miami, the squad has tallied a 9-4 SUATS record when tied in a playoff series, with the OVER going 8-5 in those 13 opportunities.

It’s important to note that the Heat have alternated wins and losses over their last 11 games—a trend that has been circled by NBA handicappers since late May.

Revenge

I anticipate Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wanting his veteran leaders of Tim Duncan and Parker to control the tempo of this game—limiting the amount of fast-break opportunities that the Heat receive.

San Antonio is also a dynamite 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS when revenging a home loss versus an opponent over the last two-plus seasons.

[gameodds]5/238035/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as their NBA pick for Game 5 of the Finals this Sunday, as the UNDER is 13-7 in the Spurs’ last 20 games after allowing 105 or more points.

NBA Pick: Under 187.5 at Ladbrokes

Check out Joe Catalano's free NBA pick on the Game 5 point spread!