NBA Picks: Heat vs. Pistons +5.5

Jordan Sharp

Friday, March 28, 2014 3:45 PM GMT

While Dwyane Wade is yet again a game time decision, the Pistons are at full strength, and playing with nothing to lose. Will the Heat falter ATS in the NBA Odds against this East foe?

D-TD-Wade
While he has gone by many nicknames in the past, Dwyane Wade’s new nickname should just be “day to day,” because that’s his label in the injury report basically every day if it doesn’t read “out,” all together. At 32 years old, Wade’s career has taken a sharp downturn, and it’s probably all due to his meniscus shaving back at Marquette. Now you know why Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook took/are taking so long to come back, they don’t want to be limited every day by knees with no cartilage when they’re barely into their 30s.

The injury/meniscus rant aside, the NBA Odds have the Pistons as +5 ½ home dogs here, and even though they have been pretty bad this season playing as home dogs, I think they have value here if Wade sits.

The Heat really don’t care too much if they get home court throughout the playoffs, because I think they believe they can beat anyone when they “turn it on.” However in order to “turn it on,” they have to be healthy and rested, and at this point in the season, and after all of the Finals runs they have had in the last three seasons, it might be beneficial to sit Wade almost indefinitely until the playoffs. He can probably get some tune up games at the end of the season, but he needs rest, and the Heat can afford to give it to him right now.

If that is indeed the case tonight, the Pistons should have immense value against Miami. They have nothing left to play for other than pride this season, and recently it’s been serving them well. Detroit has covered three of their last four games ATS, and in their last six games, they have only lost by double figures once. While they are only 6-7 ATS in their last 13 home games, the Pistons are playing well when it’s just pride on the line.

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The Sharp Pick
In a season where everyone is beating up on the Eastern Conference, a team that hasn’t exactly dominated the East like most though they would is the Heat. Miami is only 18-23-1 ATS versus the Eastern Conference this season, and a big reason for that has been how overvalued they are in conference home games. However despite being 11-11 ATS in conference road games, the Heat have been losing ATS on the road as of late. Miami is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.

Miami is also only 13-15 ATS as road favorites this season, and tonight with the way they have been playing, I can’t trust them to cover here against a slightly surging Pistons team. Detroit has a big advantage in the paint, and if this regular season has taught us anything, it’s that beating up the Heat on the inside is a solid strategy to beat them. Roy Hibbert dominated the Heat in the 1st quarter, which set the tone in the Pacers’ win against Miami. Tonight, the Pistons’ big man trio should all three have solid games against the smaller Heat.

My Pick: Pistons +5 ½

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