Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, with the opening tip scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Miami owns a 2-1 series advantage over Indiana, as it picked up a convincing 114-96 victory as two-point road favorites Sunday, while going OVER the total for the sixth time in its last seven postseason games.
The Heat are 20-9 straight up (SU) and 15-13-1 against the spread (ATS) when leading in a playoff series over the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 16-12-1 in that situation.
Indiana seemingly had control of this best-of-seven series after earning a split of the first two games in Miami, but it allowed 70 first-half points in Game 3 and never recovered.
The Pacers are 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS when revenging a home loss versus an opponent this season, with the UNDER going 7-5 in those 12 opportunities.
Life on the road
Sports bettors are going to have a hard time not backing the Heat with their sports picks when looking over the odds, considering they’ve become the first team in league history to win five straight playoff games on the road by double-digits in a single postseason.
Miami has captured 15 wins away from AmericanAirlines Arena since 2011—the most in the NBA during that span.
1-2 record = trouble
In 21 seven-game series in franchise history, Indiana has entered Game 4 with a 1-2 record seven times—ultimately losing all seven of those series.
The Pacers definitely deserve some respect in this spot, as they’ve compiled a 6-1 SU ATS record at this venue during the postseason.
NBA handicappers should definitely keep an eye on the scoreboard at the end of 12 and 24 minutes, as the Pacers are 7-0 when leading after the first quarter, while winning nine of 10 when going into halftime with a scoring advantage.
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Heat as one of their NBA pick Tuesday, as they’ve gone 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS after three or more consecutive OVERs, while the Pacers are 5-5 SUATS in that situation.
In my opinion, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has made better adjustments in this series than Indiana’s Frank Vogel, which will likely be the difference in this pivotal game.
NBA Pick: Miami Heat -2.5