Nets Passing and Shooting Wear Down Heat Defense Late
The Nets were much more crisp offensively in Game 3, and even though the Heat defense was still pretty good in the first half of that game, the Nets grinded and shot their way to a huge home win. However even after their win, the Heat are a -2 ½ road favorite in the NBA Odds for Game 4, with a total of 187 ½.
If the Nets can keep up their offensive power from the three-point line, this series is going to be closer than I projected. However that doesn’t mean we can’t make money off of it too. Good offense always beats good defense, and both teams have now shown that they can beat the other’s defense.
Mirza Teletovic was outstanding for the Nets once again lighting it up off the bench for the second game in a row. If Brooklyn can get him, or at least one other bench player to come in and give them double figure scoring, it makes them a much scarier team on offense. We know the Nets’ starters can score, but Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson especially tough defensive assignments as well, which limits their offense a little.
However it was the crisp passing and execution that wore down Miami in the second half, and if Brooklyn can keep their offense playing well with lots of ball movement, I think we might have an opportunity to cash the over Monday night.
The Sharp Pick
In these playoffs, the Nets are now 6-4 cashing the over, and the over has now cashed in two of the three games this series. For the Heat, the over has cashed in five of their seven playoffs games this season, and if there was any a time to ride the trends, it might be tonight.
Even though two of the three have gone over this series, 187 ½ points is the lowest total we have seen all series. We were able to cash the under in Game 2, however now that the total is nearly five points lower, the over looks good again here on Monday.
The Heat’s defense lapsed badly in the second half, and I don’t know if they started to get tired, or they just weren’t ready to play coming out of half time. I assume their offense is will play better in the whole game of #4 and not just the first half of it, and if that’s truly the case, 187 ½ is severely underfunded for Monday.
As long as Brooklyn gets the type of ball movement they got last game, even if some of those three’s don’t go down, the Heat will make up for it enough to make the over the play. I expect another good game from the Nets’ bench, as well as a much better game from Lebron James, who was only 2-6 in the second half before the game got out of hand and he was taken out. Take the over.
My Pick: OVER 187 ½