NBA Picks: Heat vs. Celtics

Jordan Sharp

Monday, March 18, 2013 2:31 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 18, 2013 2:31 PM UTC

Why have we decided to look at the total in tonight's matchup between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics? Find out if we have added the Over or Under to our NBA picks here.

The SU winning streak of the Heat goes on the line again this evening, as they face one of their toughest opponents during the winning streak, the Boston Celtics. I’m not going to bring up my conspiracy theory on how the Heat got the easiest schedule down the stretch of any team, but I will say that this one will not be easy.


The NBA Odds favor Miami in this one at -4 ½, with a total of 189. This spread is pretty hard to predict, so I’m going with the total this evening. Miami played last night in Toronto, and then had to take the short flight to Boston yesterday afternoon. Most teams coming off a travel game the night before play much worse on defense than offense, however the Heat this season are the opposite.

Miami is 9-3 this season cashing the over when playing with no rest. For some reason, those highflying dunks seem to be a bit harder on the second night of a back to back. Enter the Boston Celtics, who would love nothing more than to rough up Miami before the playoffs, as well as end this winning streak.

I’m not betting either team on the spread, as I feel that the best betting value lies in betting the total. The under has cashed for the Heat at 19-13 this season on the road, where the Heat go from averaging 107 points per game at home, to only 99 per game on the road.

For the Celtics, Kevin Garnett missed the shoot around this morning, and at best he looks like a game time decision for the Celtics. This is no good for a team that already doesn’t rebound the ball well, and if he misses, Boston could be taking a very small lineup to the court, which means more jumps shots, more misses, and fewer points. Also, if he does miss the game, his 15 points per will be hard to makeup for Boston against a team like Miami. I think we see a playoff style matchup here tonight however, and the total will slide under.

My NBA Pick: UNDER 189 at 5Dimes

Also check out my NBA Picks of the Day for more free plays.

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