NBA Picks: Heat vs. Celtics to go 'Over' Total

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, March 19, 2014 11:43 AM GMT

A night after barely escaping the Cavs in Cleveland, the Heat travel into Boston to play the Celtics, and the NBA Odds have Boston as a +7 home underdog, with a total of 199.

Will Miami have another close call against a team not even close to their league tonight, or will they cruise to another victory?

Wade DNPs last night

Whilst in Cleveland last night, Dwyane Wade did not play against the Cavs. It looked like a solid decision with Kyrie Irving and Luol Deng missing the game, but the Heat only won the game by four points, and outside of Lebron James, no one on the Heat played exceptionally well.

Although I think Wade was probably just sitting out because of the back-to-back, make sure you double-check his status tonight before placing a bet. Even though the Celtics do pose a little bigger risk than the Cavs did last night, they are still not a great team, and the Heat could win the game easily if they show up with full force.

However as we creep closer to April, that becomes harder to predict, as the Heat and other teams are starting to think about the playoffs. This makes handicapping any spread; especially Heat spreads difficult. It’s one of the reasons why I am laying off the number tonight, and going with the total tonight, which is just less than 200 points.

Take a look at the top NBA Championship Betting Lines

The Sharp Pick

This season when playing on the second night of a back to back, the Heat are 7-5 ATS, but they are 8-4 cashing the over on no rest as well. Boston has become a rivalry for the Heat even though it’s not this season, and both teams will be playing to win. I think this will really make the points in this game go up, as the Heat will probably be disinterested on defense after their tough game last night in Cleveland.

In their last ten games, the Celtics have given up over 102 points per game, and while that is above their season average, the Heat are also giving up north of 100 points in their last ten, which is much higher than their season average of 98 oppg.

The over gas also cashed in six of the last seven times these two teams have played one another, and it’s cashed in the last two times these tow have hooked up from Boston. One of the main reasons for this has been the Heat’s scoring overall against the Celtics. In their last six games against one another, the Heat are averaging scoring over 106 points per game, and if they do that tonight with a total of 199, the over looks like a great play.

The Boston defense has been anything but good over the last month, and even though they have been one of the better under bets of the NBA, I see the over creeping up. The over has cashed in seven of the Celtics last 12 games, and for the Heat, the over has cashed in three straight games, and six of their last ten overall. On the second night of a back-to-back, look for the over to cash again for the Heat and C’s.

My Pick: OVER 199

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