The NBA Odds favor the Heat in this one at -2 ½, with a total of 186 ½. Which one of these squads holds the most value on the short card for Thursday?
Still a show
Even though the Bulls will still be without Derrick Rose for this game, (Chicago plays the Heat two more times this season) this rivalry never gets old no matter who is on the court. While the Bulls have won three of the last four meetings, the last ten times these two have played they split ATS at 5-5.
Not only have they split the last ten times ATS, their average points per game against one another are within a half of one point of one another. Obviously the books know the game will be close, as only 2 ½ points can go either way between these two teams. However, the last three times they have played, the average margin of victory was over 9 points.
The problems with betting either of these teams are evident. The Bulls are a fade factory when they play at home this season. Chicago is a league worst 7-20 ATS at home, which would make anyone want to fade them no matter what.
The problem is, the Heat played last night in Atlanta, which isn’t exactly a short plane ride away. Plus, the Heat didn’t necessarily play well last night until the 4th quarter. Miami dropped 40 points in the 4th last night, giving new meaning to Phillips Arena’s nickname, “The Highlight Factory.” They also held the Hawks to 17 4th quarter points. Miami has been very good Su on the second night of a back to back, going 6-1, but they are still under .500 ATS on the road this season despite their win and cover last night.
All in all, the spread is off limits in my eyes. There is too much uncertainty, there are no true trends to work with and normally these rival games are pretty close. Instead I am siding with a pick on the total.
The Sharp Pick
On top of sucking ATS at home, the Bulls have given people betting the under on their home games a big season so far. The under has cashed in 19 of 27 home games for Chicago this season, and the Heat are also giving a slight profit on the under while playing on the road this season.
In a game that will likely be one with no shortage of hard fouls, trash talk and technical fouls, (my personal O/U for T’s tonight is 1 ½) I’m siding with the under. I think it is just a tad high, and I think defense will rule this evening. The Bulls have a duo of Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler that will clamp down on the dynamic duo tonight, and I think getting a big win in Atlanta last night will play against the Heat tonight.
On top of that, the under has cashed between these two the last three times they have met, and also in five of the last six. Add the under to your sports picks tonight.My Pick: UNDER 186 ½