Miami didn't really have any issues covering as seven-point favorites in Game 3, so oddsmakers have responded by putting a higher number on the NBA odds board for today.
At the moment the Heat are favored by 8.5 points, with 9 also there for the taking if you like the value on Milwaukee. The total is primarily at 195.5 at most NBA betting sites.
The Heat survived another slow start – they were down 30-21 after the first quarter – to win 104-91 in Game 3.
Milwaukee totaled just 61 points in the next three quarters as Miami's defense clamped down. That being said, it was a pretty sloppy game altogether, with the two teams combining for 39 turnovers in all.
For once, it wasn't LeBron James or Dwyane Wade that completely ran the show. Wade couldn't buy a bucket and finished a miserable 1-of-12 from the floor, but he contributed 11 assists, nine rebounds, five steals, and two blocks to still make an impact. LeBron had 22/6/5 but committed five turnovers.
Impressive efforts from Ray Allen and Chris Bosh made the difference. Allen hit 8-of-14 from the field overall, including 5-of-8 from three, to end up with 23 points, while Bosh scored 16 points and pulled down 14 rebounds.
Overall, that championship pedigree has been on full display throughout the series, and there's still room for the Heat to improve before heading into a likely meeting with the Chicago Bulls in the next round.
Though the Bucks have showed they can hang at times, they've had a really hard time playing sound basketball for the full 48 minutes. You've got to be execute perfectly if you want any chance of topping a team like Miami.
As we noted, Milwaukee started off strong in Game 3, but fizzled out in the end. As a team they shot 45.8 percent from the floor, while hitting just 26.9 percent (7-of-26) from three and 62.1 percent (18-of-29) from the line.
It was a very balanced offensive effort from the Bucks despite the loss, as this time around it wasn't the backcourt that carried the load. Six different players scored in double figures, with Larry Sanders leading the way with 16 points and 11 rebounds.
Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis shot a combined 7-of-24 from the field and made just 2-of-13 from beyond the arc between them. Jennings was far more productive overall though, logging 16 points, eight assists, five boards, and five steals.
Not only are the Bucks winless in this series so far, they're now 1-8 SU over their lst nine games dating back to the regular season. During that span they've gone 4-5 against the spread.
Game 4 Pick
Miami and Milwaukee have alternated covers so far in this series, but we look for the Heat to get the job done for a second consecutive game today.
The Heat can smell blood and, while we expect somewhat of a fight from the Bucks, they simply don't have what it takes to give Miami a serious run for their money. The defending champions have oozed experience and class all season long and have carried that over to this first round.
Though the spread is even higher this time around, we find it hard to believe the Heat won't secure the sweep here, while also dominating enough to grab a relatively comfortable win in the end.
Free Pick: Miami Heat -8.5 at BET365