After nailing the Spurs in Game 1, we doubled down and lost on the Spurs in Game 2 ATS. Now in San Antonio in a critical Game 3, the NBA Odds favor the Spurs at -2 ½, with a total of 188. The NBA Finals have taken an 8 ½ point swing after the first two games, so where should we trust putting out money in a critical Game 3 for the players and our NBA picks alike.
Heat storm back
The Spurs were holding on for dear life in Game 2 for most of the first three quarters, but then the end of the third and into the fourth quarter saw the Heat pull away. San Antonio wasn’t playing great to begin with, but they were making enough three-point shots to keep the game close. However the Heat’s role players and Lebron James were the victors, even though the vastly over-looked story of this game was James’ 7-17 performance. At one time he was 2-12, however as I said, the end of the 3rd and 4th quarters, were all James.
Miami’s road playoff struggles
James’ Game 2 performance was great in other areas, and his scoring inefficiency obviously means nothing after the blowout Game 2, however five Heat players were in double figures at home in Game 2. In these playoffs the Heat have been inconsistent at getting bench production, and even production from some of their stars on the road in these playoffs. Dwyane Wade is averaging just over 10 points per game on the road in the playoffs, and he is shooting 36% from the floor in those games. Chris Bosh isn’t much better at just over 12 points per game on the road in his seven road playoff games.
San Antonio struggled in Game 2, but it doesn’t matter. They still have three straight home games and now they have put the pressure on Miami to come up with road scoring. The Heat were solid in that area in the regular season, but they have been up and down in the postseason. They are averaging just over 95 points per game on the road these playoffs, but they have had as many as 114 on the road in a game, as well as a 77-point performance in Indiana.
Defense wins championships
Knowing Miami’s road struggles at times, and on top of their great defense as well, I think the 'under' is where we need to go with our sports picks in this one. The Heat have shown that if they put forth the effort on defense, they can shut down the Spurs to an extent, and the Spurs’ defense gets much better at home to begin with. They played solid defense in Game 1 as well, but they fell apart on offense in Game 2, leading to too many turnovers and fast break buckets for Miami. I think we see a low scoring game in Game 3.
The Sharp Pick
The Heat have cashed the under for NBA Bettors in their last five games this postseason, and overall the under is a nice 20-5 the last twenty-five times these two teams have played one another. More recently, the under has cashed in both games of this series, and in seven of their last ten meetings overall.
Plus the under is 10-2 in the last 12 times these two teams have played one another in Miami. I see another game in the very low 90s tonight, as the under should cash for hopefully the 4th time in a row between these two powerhouses.
My Pick: UNDER 188
Be sure to check out Jeff Grant's free NBA picks on Game 3's spread.