NBA Picks: Heat Desperately Looking For A Win Against Cavaliers

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, March 19, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 19, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

The Cavaliers are trying to maintain their standing as the top team in the East while the Heat are hoping to move up the conference ladder as the postseason approaches. Let's review the NBA odds.

Cleveland Cavaliers (49-19 SU, 31-36-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers have won five of their last six but have failed to cover the NBA odds in their last three consecutive games. Last night Cleveland flew into Orlando as 10-point road favorites and notched a 109-102 victory but again disappointed all those who backed them in their NBA picks. Kyrie Irving scored 26 while LeBron James notched 18 in the win that improved Cleveland's record to an Eastern Conference best of 49-19. The Cavs shot 50 percent including 13 of 28 from beyond the arc. The team knuckled down defensively in the final quarter holding the Magic to just 17 points.

Cleveland is averaging 103.6 points per game which ranks them 9th in the league while their defense is limiting the opposition to just 97.5 points per game which places them 3rd in that category. The Cavs are averaging 44.8 rebounds per game (7th) and newcomer Channing Frye has been a welcome addition since being traded from Orlando. Since that time Frye has shot 50 percent from three-point land (25-of-50) and had 14 in the win over his former club last night.


Miami Heat (39-29 SU, 35-32-1 ATS)
Miami has alternated wins and losses over their past six contests and have failed to cover the number in five of their last six. The team has a very tenuous grip on the fourth seed in the conference and is being pursued by Charlotte and Boston that are all one of 1 ½ games behind the Heat respectively. Thursday night the Heat welcomed the white hot Hornets to Miami and not only failed to cover the number as 4½ point home chalk but lost the game outright 109-106.

The Heat scored 100 points for the ninth consecutive time while Chris Bosh remains on the sidelines due to a blood clot issue that has derailed his season. Miami is averaging 99 points per game on the season (24th), allowing 97.9 points per game (4th) and grabbing 44.3 boards per contest (tied for 11th). Dwyane Wade is still getting it done with 19 points per game while Hassan Whiteside is cleaning the boards averaging 11.7 rebounds per game.


Betting Analysis
Cleveland won the opening game between these teams 102-92 back in October but the Heat paid them back a few months later when the venue shifted to Miami. The Heat prevailed 99-84 as 5 ½ point home favorites. The Heat is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS when playing the Cavs at home over the past four contests.

In their last 16 games versus Eastern Conference opponents the Cavaliers are just 4-10-2 ATS while the home team in this series is 7-0 ATS over the last seven games. In addition Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six versus Central Division opponents. When you factor in that the Cavs just played last night while the Heat have been able to rest at home since their loss at home on Thursday night to the Hornets, the side is clear in this one. I say grab the home dog here and know that the Heat desperately need a win against a team in Cleveland that could be runnign on fumes.

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NBA Pick: Miami +3 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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