NBA Picks: Hawks vs. Nuggets

Jeff Grant

Monday, March 4, 2013 3:30 PM GMT

Monday, Mar. 4, 2013 3:30 PM GMT

The Atlanta Hawks will likely tip off as double-digit road underdogs for the first time this year, as they prepare to take on the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center Monday night. Is there any NBA betting edge to be found here?

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for the second meeting between these non-conference foes during the 2012-13 NBA season.

Road trippin’ 

Atlanta has won three of five games on its current road trip that ends Monday, as it looks to bounce back from a 99-98 setback to the Los Angeles Lakers as 5.5-point underdogs last night.

The Hawks are 15-15 straight up (SU) and 17-13 against the spread (ATS) when playing away from home, while the UNDER is 17-12-1 in that situation.

Scoring in bunches

Denver has scored 105 or more points in winning four games in a row, including a two-point home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last Friday night, while going OVER the total for the third time in that span.

The Nuggets are 25-3 SU and 19-9 ATS at this venue, while the OVER is 15-12-1 in those 28 opportunities.

Betting trends

The NBA odds makers are making it tempting to back the Hawks, as they’ve covered the spread in three of their last four tries as road underdogs of 9.5 to 12 points.

It’s important to note that Atlanta will likely play its first game with a betting total of 210 or higher this season, which can’t be overlooked due to Denver’s 7-0 SUATS mark at home with that type of number.

Closing out a back-to-back in the Mile High City

The Nuggets have compiled a dominating 43-8 record in their last 51 games when hosting a foe that’s closing out a back-to-back situation.  Denver is outscoring foes by 9.6 points per game in front of its home fans this year.

Atlanta could offer some resistance to this dominating statistic, considering it has gone 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games when playing on zero days rest.

[gameodds]5/220055/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Hawks as one of their NBA picks Monday, as I established the Nuggets as 8.5-point home favorites in this spot.  

Atlanta will improve to 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings in this series, as Denver will likely come out flat after facing three of its biggest rivals before this affair.

NBA Pick:  Atlanta Hawks +10.5 at 5Dimes

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