NBA Picks: Hawks vs. Celtics
Both teams really need a win to keep pace for their playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and the NBA Odds here tonight, favor the Celtics only by -1 ½, with a total of 194 ½. Which team will get that all important last season win and/or cover?
Hawks Slump, Still Time
After Atlanta finished out the month of February 33-23 overall and in good position in the East, the month of March came, and it has not been kind to the bird. Atlanta is 7-9 SU in the month of March, and if they don’t start winning and playing defense like they were before this month, their chances of getting a first round home matchup are getting slimmer and slimmer. Currently, the Hawks are percentage points behind the Bulls for the 5th spot, and 2 ½ games back of the Nets for the 4th seed, where they could get a first round home series.
Heading into Boston to face the shorthanded Celtics seems like the best bet for the Hawks to get a win. Not so fast. Atlanta is seemingly undervalued on the road this season, going 21-16 ATS away from the Highlight Factory. However Atlanta is only 3-6 SU in their last nine road games and they are even worse in their history in Boston.
In their last five trips to Boston, the Hawks are 0-5 SU and they haven’t been that great ATS either. Their most recent trip there they lost against the C’s without Rajon Rondo playing, so even that factor didn’t seem to matter as the Celtics won 107-102.
The Celtics are dropping like flies, and they will of course once again be without Kevin Garnett tonight against the Hawks. This is actually really big, because the Hawks are very good down low, and without their one threat that could get any sort of defense tonight on the Hawks’ big men is not playing.
That means Boston will have to out score the Hawks in transition, because they are most likely going to get dominated on the glass tonight. Boston should be getting back Courtney Lee here this evening, which will help, and the injury to Avery Bradley isn’t expected to keep him out of the game tonight.
Check out Jeff Grant's pick on the Grizzlies vs. Rockets!~
The Sharp Pick
Despite the Celtics hanging on in the East right now, they haven’t been covering very well in the last week or so. Boston is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. I think tonight, despite Atlanta’s bad play on the road in Boston over the last few years, I think the Hawks will have enough tonight to put down Boston in Boston.
The Celtics will be too tiny tonight to compete with Al Horford and Josh Smith. While I do think both teams are a little undervalued all together by the books, I think Atlanta is the better team as their rosters currently stand. Don’t think too much about this one, take the Hawks’ ML for tonight.
My Pick: Hawks +105 at Bodog
Breaking news has made me change my pick away from Hawks +105 due to the recent news surrounding Al Horford. Horford is considered doubtful tonight against the Celtics due to an illness, and the Hawks have lost all value. I'm going to hedge slightly with OVER 194.
Now that Horford is out, the game will get a little faster, as the Hawks aren't that deep in the front court either. The last two times these two have played the total has gone over. Plus, five out of the last seven times they have played in Boston, the total has gone over.
Revised Pick: OVER 194