NBA Picks: Grizzlies vs. Thunder Game 2

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, May 7, 2013 12:05 PM GMT

The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder slipped below the betting total in their series opener, but things may be different at Chesapeake Energy Arena Tuesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 2 of this Western Conference semifinal series, with the opening tip scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

Let one slip away 

Memphis certainly missed out on an opportunity to go up 1-0 in this best-of-seven series, as it was outscored by a 29-18 margin in the fourth quarter, which ultimately led to a 93-91 defeat as 3.5-point road underdogs Sunday

The Grizzlies are 17-8 straight up (SU) and 16-9 against the spread (ATS) when revenging a loss versus an opponent since the start of the regular season, while the UNDER is 17-8 in that situation. 

Fortunate 

Oklahoma City has now won three of four home games during the 2013 NBA playoffs, but it will be difficult for this team to take a 2-0 series lead over Memphis, considering it has gone 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS as home favorites of three points or less the last two-plus seasons. 

The Thunder were led by star Kevin Durant in the series opener, as he finished with a game-high 35 points, with 12 of those coming in the fourth quarter. 

Offensive boards 

NBA handicappers need to take a long look at the Grizzlies in this spot, as they’ll likely grab more than eight offensive rebounds that they came away with in Game 1, which was less than half of their regular season average in that category. 

Power forward Zach Randolph is the key player to watch in the paint, averaging 23.8 points an 9.0 rebounds in Memphis’ four playoff wins, but being limited to 14.7 and 7.3 in those respective categories three defeats. 

Betting total is significant 

It’s important to keep a close eye on the odds prior to placing your sports picks, as Oklahoma City has won all five of its home games with a betting total of 185 to 189.5 over the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 3-2 in that situation. 

On the other side, Memphis has compiled a solid 11-3 ATS record on the road when tipping off with a number within that range.

[gameodds]5/228702/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their NBA picks Tuesday, as the OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.   

I anticipate that Memphis will get more second-chance opportunities on the offensive end, while the pace in Game 1 allowed for each side to finish with 80 or more shot attempts.

NBA Pick:  Over 186 at Bet365