NBA Picks: Grizzlies to 'Cover' Against Spurs Game 4

Jeff Grant

Monday, May 27, 2013 3:00 PM GMT

Monday, May. 27, 2013 3:00 PM GMT

The Memphis Grizzlies will need to believe ... if they plan on extending their best-of-seven series against the San Antonio Spurs, as the two teams meet up Monday night.

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA odds for Game 4 of the Western Conference finals at FedExForum, with the opening tip scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Quite a win

San Antonio picked up a 104-93 overtime victory over Memphis as 4.5-point road underdogs in Game 3 last Saturday, while the OVER has cashed in the first three games of this series.

The Spurs overcame an early 18-point deficit, with their veteran trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker combining to score 69 points.

Since 1996, the franchise has compiled a 28-9 straight-up (SU) record when attempting to close out a postseason series, including a 4-0 mark the last two-plus seasons. 

Believe 

Memphis will take a major step backwards if it gets swept in four games, which is why its fan base must “Believe” that a comeback is possible in this series—a word that is displayed proudly on the rally towels the organization passes out in home games during the playoffs. 

The Grizzlies are 7-4 SU and 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) when trailing in a postseason series the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 7-3-1 in those 11 opportunities. 

107-0 

NBA handicappers are going to have a hard time not backing the Spurs when looking over the betting lines, considering teams that hold a 3-0 advantage have compiled a 107-0 series record. 

San Antonio has won Game 4 all three times when landing in this type or roll since 2010-11, with the UNDER cashing in two of those affairs. 

Randolph must play big

There’s no doubt that the Grizzlies will need to dominate the offensive glass if they plan on sending this series back to San Antonio, which is why power forward Zach Randolph is the most important player on the floor.

Randolph is averaging team-highs with 17.7 points and 10.1 rebounds in the postseason, while he led the league with 310 offensive rebounds during the regular season. 

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Grizzlies as their NBA playoff picks, as they’ve gone 4-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge since the start of the season, while the Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 affairs when playing on one days rest. 

NBA Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -3

[gameodds]5/236521/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]
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