NBA Picks: Great FIrst Half Value On Grizzlies vs. Mavericks

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 8, 2016 12:09 PM GMT

The Grizzlies are locked into the playoffs. But with their injury history, will they take any chances heading into this game against Dallas? NBA picks here. 

Volatile games down the stretch
This time of year is killer for the NBA. I had to hedge out of a bet on the over for the Kings and Wolves last night when the Kings surprisingly sat out half their team. While the Mavs will be all hands on deck tonight, it remains to be seen what the Grizzlies will do here on the road. They have clinched at least the 6th seed, but it really depends on whom they want to face. They will either play the Clippers if they finish 5th, or the Thunder is they finish 6th, and my guess is they will want to face the Clippers.

Memphis is 1-1 SU against LA this season, compared to 1-2 SU against the Thunder, and Memphis simply matches up better with the Clippers. However, with all of the injuries Memphis has gone through and is still going through, they may just elect to shut it down before the playoffs to keep everyone healthy. However, a week plus away from the playoffs is a long time to go without playing a game, so Memphis may play this one by ear tonight.

With that being said, the NBA odds have the Mavs as -6 favorites in this one, with a total sitting anywhere from 193 ½ to 195 points. While the total has been dropping significantly since it opened, it’s for good reason. The Mavs are coming into this one on a five game winning streak, and their formula for it has been playing slower. Dallas has failed to reach 100 points in five straight games, but they have allowed an average of just 86 points in those five games.

 

The Sharp Pick
With all of their injuries, and with their playoff spot secure, even if Memphis doesn’t rest players in this one, they may relax just a little. On the contrary, the Mavs will not relax, so a bet on the over for the first half may be the best way to go in this one. Even though the Mavs have been excellent on defense over their last five games, they are still averaging 49 points per first half in their last five games.

The Grizzlies on the other hand have been hurt on defense the most with all of their injuries, and the first half has been no exception. In their last five games, Memphis is giving up an average of nearly 54 points per first half. If Dallas can stay focused on this game, they could easily get above the 50-point mark against a Memphis team looking ahead to the playoffs.

The last time these two teams played, the first half score was 54-52, and I think we could see a similar first half tonight. Even their game before that one that fell way under the total, the first half total cashed over with a score of 55-49 at the half. Look for another high scoring first half as your NBA picks, and then potentially a lower scoring second half in Dallas tonight for the desperate Mavs.

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NBA Pick: Over 98 1H
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline