NBA Picks: Grab A Profitable 'Under' As Raptors Try Adjusting Against Pacers

Monday, April 25, 2016 5:17 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 25, 2016 5:17 PM UTC

The Toronto Raptors gnawed Game 4 of their first-round series with the Indiana Pacers. Does anyone trust them enough to put them in tonight's NBA picks?

<p style="text-align:center"><iframe allowfullscreen frameborder="0" height="330" src="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/video/embed/?videoId=32621" width="560"></iframe></p> <p><strong>Jason's 2015-16 record as of April 25:</strong> 36-40-1 ATS, 7-3-1 Total</p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/indiana-pacers-vs-toronto-raptors-3011074/" target="_blank" title="Shop Live Odds For The Pacers vs. Raptors Game">Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors</a></strong><br /> Playoff basketball is all about adjustments. Heading into Game 4 of the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/nba-betting-eastern-conference-odds-future-nba-picks/70534/" target="_blank" title="Read Our Betting Analysis And Breakdown For The Eastern Conference">Eastern Conference</a> quarterfinal between the Toronto Raptors and the Indiana Pacers, we had the opportunity here at the ranch to talk some hoops with a former national team member, and he was <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/nba-picks-how-beat-bookie-raptors-vs-pacers-game-4/71821/" target="_blank" title="Revisit Our Pick For Game 4 Of This Pacers/Raptors Series">a bit more confident than we were</a> about Indiana's ability to adjust after getting trounced in Games 2 and 3.</p> <p>It's hard to tell at first blush whether the Pacers succeeded, or whether the Raptors simply handed the game to Indiana. Probably a bit of both. Final score: Pacers 100, Raptors 83, with Indiana cashing in as a 1-point home dog on the closing line. That squares the series at 2-2 as they prepare for Tuesday's Game 5 (6:00 p.m. ET, TNT) at the ACC. Toronto is a 7-point chalk on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank" title="See Live NBA Odds Here">NBA odds boards</a> as we go to press.</p> <p style="text-align:center"><iframe frameborder="0" height="75" id="ab0d08a1" name="ab0d08a1" scrolling="no" src="http://adn.sportsbookreview.com/www/delivery/afr.php?zoneid=156&amp;cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NUMBER_HERE" style="text-align:center" width="646"></iframe></p> <p style="text-align:center"> </p> <p><strong>April Anarchy</strong><br /> Before we conduct that autopsy on Game 4, let's consider the merits of simply auto-betting the UNDER for every series for the rest of the playoffs – or at least until the market adjusts, if it does. These games are really getting silly with the amount of violence being allowed. It was the right <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="See More Free NBA Picks Here">NBA pick</a> for Sunday's brouhaha between the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics, which went <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/focus-the-total-when-making-nba-picks-hawks-vs-celtics-game-4/71855/" target="_blank" title="Review Our Pick For Game 4 Of The Hawks/Celtics Series">UNDER 203 on the closing line</a> despite the Celtics winning 104-95 in overtime.</p> <p>Back to Game 4 for a moment. As expected, the Pacers did start Myles Turner (15.4 PER, –2.3 BPM) at power forward, and he did indeed take advantage of Luis Scola (13.6 PER, –1.2 BPM) when they were on the floor together. But Turner shot 2-of-13 and finished the night with a plus-minus of zero. The story of this game, once again, was the poor shooting of Kyle Lowry (22.1 PER, +6.8 BPM) and DeMar DeRozan (21.5 PER, +1.4 BPM), who combined for 20 points on 8-of-27 from the floor.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Outside Job</strong><br /> Let's give some credit to the Pacers defense for harassing Toronto's backcourt, especially DeRozan. But how do we treat these Raptors going forward? Do we expect Lowry and DeRozan to regress positively toward the mean? In the long run, yes, but we might not see that regression manifest itself on Tuesday.</p> <p>We also might not see Toronto head coach Dwane Casey make the adjustments that, in our humble opinion here at the ranch, have to be made for Game 5. The Raptors need better outside shooting, now that the Pacers are clogging the paint and making life a bit more difficult for Jonas Valanciunas (22.6 PER, +1.1 BPM). DeRozan (33.8 percent from downtown) isn't the right man for that job. Maybe we'll see Casey give Norman Powell (40.4 percent) some more burn in Game 5. Maybe. We'll go with the UNDER instead, and may the sphere be with you.</p> <p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011074, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p> <p><strong>Free NBA Pick:</strong> Under 191.5<br /> <strong>Best Line Offered:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4426&amp;book=Bookmaker" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get your Welcome Bonus, Join Bookmaker Today!">at Bookmaker</a></p>
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