Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, May 30, 9:00 PM EST
Free NBA Pick: Over 213 (-110)
Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker
The Golden State Warriors are set to take their bid for a third straight championship title on the road. It’s their fifth straight appearance in the coveted finals but first time starting as the away team. Their undeniable dominance in the game has them favored in many betting circles to come to the good, but they are at a slight disadvantage (at the time of writing) for game 1. Less than 24 hours until game time, the Warriors are installed as the nominal underdogs across the board – best value presently available with Pinnacle where they are trading +1 (+104) against the spread and at 5Dimes where they are the +102 straight up bet to win.
That being said they are the overwhelming favorites in Futures Series betting at -290 to lift a third straight championship. For those looking to back the Warriors in this market, the best price available is with Youwager where they are found at the slightly lower price of -270.
On the flipside of the coin, the Raptors enter the opening game as the notional favorites to win straight up and cover. Several sportsbooks hang the Raptors as high as -117 to win game 1 at Scotiabank arena while others offer the Raptors at even money (Bovada). Against the spread, the Raptors are laying merely a point across the board with 5Dimes offering the lowest juice -1 (-105). Of course, please check for your up-to-date NBA odds before deciding where to make your choice NBA picks.
Most telling market for the Raptors is the Futures Series market where the NBA odds are decidedly stacked against the newcomers to the main event. They are the significant underdogs to win their first-ever championship at +245, which is the best current price with 5Dimes. It’s also worth noting, that the Raptors have taken merely an average of 30% of consensus betting while the Warriors have the rest of it. This tells us the public is shading the proven champions Warriors on their NBA picks.
As far as total betting goes, the game opened with a 215 total. Since open doors, this line has shriveled across the board. Several sportsbooks are offering 214, while others have gone down to 213.5. The lowest total at present is 213 available at Bookmaker, BetOnline, and Heritage, to name a few choice sportsbooks.
Obviously, for those looking to back the OVER, the lowest total is the best bet. Similarly, those looking to back the UNDER the higher total could be the clincher.
Trends to Spot before Settling The Total Score on your NBA Picks
Trends show the Toronto Raptors boast a 52-47-1 total record, which yields a 52.5% OVER result in their games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 48-5-0 in total betting, which yields a 49 % OVER result in their games. It’s a nominal edge for the OVER and UNDER in either case when looking at the numbers in their entirety.
Raptors as home favorites boast a 25-24-0 total record, which is a 52% edge for the OVER. However, they are 6-12-0 in total betting during the playoffs, which marks a 33.3% OVER result. The Warriors are 28-21-0 in total betting as the away team, which yields a 57.1% OVER result and 10-6-0 in total betting during the playoffs, which yields a 62.5% OVER result.
Warriors are 12-4-0 SU and 7-8-1 ATS in the playoffs. All four games they lost in the postseason cracked the OVER – twice against the LA Clippers and twice against Houston Rockets. Toronto is 12-6-0 SU and 10-8-0 ATS in the playoffs. Of the six games, they lost only two cracked the OVER the rest fell UNDER closing totals.
Finally, the Raptors come into the last round of the playoffs behind back-to-back UNDER results while the Warriors have oscillated between OVER and UNDER results in their last six consecutive games, finishing off the Portland Trail Blazers in a sweep in game 4 that cracked the 219 closing total.
So there you have it, some betting trends to consider before finalizing your NBA picks. Total betting isn’t an exact science and the complexities of matchups have a way of impacting how the scoreline develops. No two teams are the same, hence no two matchups are the same. Hence, results don’t replicate. Neither are games against the same opponent exact reproductions as teams adjust from game to game depending on the preceding result in order to affect change where necessary. There is one thing though that is sure to totally crack the OVER barometer in the broad spectrum of this series and that is Toronto’s Super Fan Drake and his courtside antics.