NBA Picks: Give The Points & Grab Heat To Cover vs. Warriors

Charles Stark

Monday, January 11, 2016 1:42 PM GMT

Monday, Jan. 11, 2016 1:42 PM GMT

Today we have the Warriors as home favorites when they take on the Miami Heat, but I think the odds makers have made the line just a little bit too big. What will be our NBA pick?

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Free NBA Pick: Miami +13½
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

NBA Odds Overview
NBA odds boards have Miami as a +12.5 underdog like at 5Dimes -110. Although I don't see Miami winning this game, with their defense I do believe they can keep it to single digits. For one of my NBA picks today, I will back the Heat plus the points to stay competitive against the league's best team.

 

Miami Heat
Miami is averaging 97 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field, and allowing 94.8 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field. Against the spread this season, they're right at 50% at 18-18, and that goes for whether they are at home or on the road where they are 11-11 and 7-7 against the spread respectively. Offensively, they can be about as stagnant as they come not pushing the pace very much, or I should say not at all averaging just 79.5 field goal attempts per game which ranks last in the NBA. However, they are an efficient shooting team ranking seventh at 46.2% in their shooting efficiency. This is mainly because they have been solid in their two point shooting averaging 50.6% per game which ranks sixth in the league. They are good at getting the ball and scoring in the paint but from beyond the arc they are only averaging 32.9% per game. Defense is the foundation of this Miami team and they are one of the best in the league on this end of the floor. They rank second in the league in defensive scoring, fifth in opponent shooting percentage, and sixth in opponent three point shooting percentage. They also allow just 7.4 three-pointers made per game which ranks as one of the best in the league, this of course will be one of their main focuses tonight. I think they got caught off guard just a little bit in their last game at Utah perhaps taking a peek towards this game tonight, I think that happens to every team in the league getting ready to face Golden State. I like for Miami to bounce back from that loss in Utah, and especially how poorly they played in the fourth quarter of that game.

 

Golden State Warriors
Golden State is averaging 114.5 points per game while shooting 48.8% from the field, and allowing 102.3 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field. It is the same old thing with this team, they just continue to win. Against the spread they have been phenomenal going 23-13 on the season with one push and a very good 14-5 with one push on the road. On their court they are 9-8 against the spread which I think is mostly due to the fact odds makers will overvalue them just a little bit simply because they are so very good at home. I think we have that case tonight which puts value on Miami. Offensively, there is not much to say, Golden State ranks in the top five in every major offensive category and they are number one in shooting efficiency, three point shooting percentage, and effective field-goal percentage. With Stephen Curry back and healthy they are going to be an extremely tough team to beat the rest of the season. Defensively, they are still underrated in my opinion, but they are one of the best in the league at turning good defense into great offense. They defend the perimeter about as good as anybody in the league, but they are susceptible to allowing points in the paint which should help the Heat tonight to keep up with them.

We have had a little bit of success this season fading the Warriors a couple times. Sometimes people get misconstrued between picking against them, and picking against them getting points. For one of your NBA picks, I recommend taking the points with Miami to keep this game a little more competitive than people anticipate. Over double digits is a lot of points to give a very good defensive team with some mentally tough veterans.

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