We hit another two prop betting picks on Tuesday and we are red-hot coming into tonight’s game. I have hit on 8-1-1 in my last 10 prop NBA betting picks, and I intend to keep going today.
Tristan Thompson O/U 19 points and rebounds
Two nights ago we easily cashed Tristan Thompson’s points and rebounds prop, and I am going after it once again here tonight. The number two nights ago on the sportsbooks was 18 ½, and even after dominating that total in Game 1 of this series, Bovada has only increased his NBA odds by half point.
This is a mistake we have to exploit tonight against the books. Atlanta was one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA this season, and Thompson showed that in Game 1 after Thompson grabbed 14 rebounds in 40 minutes. Thompson’s minutes have been going up all throughout the playoffs, and if Thompson plays as much as he did in Game 1, he is easily going to grab double-digit rebounds one again.
Then it all comes down to points. Thompson has gone scoreless in the playoffs once, but that was also a game he only played 13 minutes. He has averaged seven points per game in his last three playoff games, and that’s basically all he needs with this prop. Thompson’s offensive rebounding rate is 17.4 percent, which leads all players this postseason. Considering Atlanta was last in the league in offensive rebounding rate, and 26th in defensive rebounding rate, I see Thompson grabbing at least 12 boards and getting close to double digit scoring tonight against the Hawks.
NBA Pick: OVER 19 (-115)
Kent Bazemore O/U 20 points and rebounds
Much like Thompson’s points and rebounding total for tonight, Kent Bazemore has a very low total for the production and minutes he has been playing. The only downside to Bazemore is the fact that he is forced to defend Lebron James, so while it adds some extra risk with the possibility of foul trouble, with the way Bazemore has been scoring this postseason, it’s a solid wager.
Not only is Bazemore averaging 14 points per game in the playoffs, he is averaging 7.7 rebounds, and he grabbed 12 in Game 1. The Hawks are in need of more scoring, and Bazemore has been ready to step up. He has multiple 20-point efforts already this postseason, and his Usage Rate is 21.5 percent in these playoffs. He is also grabbing a ton of defensive rebounds for a small forward, with a defensive rebounding rate of 20.5 percent.
As long as James isn’t playing exceptional defense, and with the way he has been rebounding, I see Bazemore going over his total as well. He has done all of this too without hitting three-pointers. Bazemore’s three-point percentage is only 29.2 percent these playoffs, and if he can start hitting some shots from the outside, he is more than capable of getting above his points and rebounds total. Add Bazemore as one of your NBA picks tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 20 (-115)