No Durant, No Problem: Bet Warriors As Public Overvalues Rockets In Game 6

Thursday, May 9, 2019 7:27 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 9, 2019 7:27 PM UTC

Here's a headscratcher for ya: Kevin Durant, arguably the best player in the world is out for game 6 vs the Rockets, and somehow that makes the Warriors the RIGHT pick tonight, contrary to popular belief.
<div><div style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through May 9: 29-29-1 ATS, 0-6 ML (minus-12.63 units), 38-25-1 Totals</em></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div style="text-align:center"><strong>Golden State (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) at Houston (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS)</strong></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div style="text-align:center"><strong>Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN</strong></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Warriors ATS</a></strong></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href=";book=5dimes" target="_blank">5Dimes</a></strong></div><div style="text-align:center"> </div><div style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3784338, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,238,1602,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</div><div> </div><p><a href="" target="_blank">The Golden State Warriors</a> were stomping a mudhole in the Houston Rockets Wednesday night. Then Kevin Durant felt something in his right leg. He left the floor, didn’t return, and the Rockets nearly took Game 5 before losing 104-99. At least Houston beat the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds</a> as 6-point road dogs; they’re 4-1 ATS in this series, and with Durant out of commission, they’ve got a great chance to even things up at 3-3 SU when they host the Warriors <a href="" target="_blank">this Friday</a>.<br /><br />So why are we putting Golden State in our <a href="">NBA picks</a>? Because Durant isn’t going to play – and because bettors appear to be overcompensating, as they often do when a superstar gets injured. The Warriors opened at +6 for Game 6, and they’re already available at +7.5 as we go to press. How high can they go? Let’s see what happens now that Durant has essentially been written off for Friday night.</p><div> </div><h2>AI &gt; KD</h2><p><br />That’s according to Dubs head coach Steve Kerr, who told reporters after Game 5 that <a href="" target="_blank">Durant is “not playing Game 6,”</a> even though he’s officially considered doubtful at press time. This is before the results of Thursday’s scheduled MRI were known, but word is Durant won’t even make the trip to <a href="" target="_blank">Houston</a>.<br /><br />It’s hardly ideal for <a href="" target="_blank">Golden State</a>, of course. Durant (plus-5.1 BPM in 11 playoff games) was playing at a very high level, but it’s not like he’s been torching people the way he did two years ago in his first postseason with the Dubs (plus-8.7 BPM). You could even argue that Andre Iguodala (plus-5.6 BPM) has been their real MVP thus far. Let’s not forget about Andrew Bogut (plus-5.9 BPM) and the work he did against the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round, even if he’s glued to the bench now.</p><p> </p><h2>More Points, Please</h2><p><br />We need some numbers to back up this speculation. Jeff Sagarin at <em>The USA Today</em> projected <a href="" target="_blank">Houston</a> as a 1.71-point favorite using his eigenvector analysis, which won’t cover for Durant’s absence. Is he worth another 5-6 points to the Dubs? Maybe not; using their Elo-based formula, FiveThirtyEight have <a href="http://-" target="_blank">the Rocket</a><a href="" target="_blank">s</a> pegged at –6.5 now that Durant is out of the mix.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Steph Curry before Kevin Durant's injury: 9 PTS (4-14 FG, 1-8 3PT)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;After: 16 PTS (5-9 FG, 2-3 3 PT)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— (@Ballislife) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;May 9, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]<br /><br />Really, we’d like to see <a href="" onclick=", '', 'resizable=no,status=no,location=no,toolbar=no,menubar=no,fullscreen=no,scrollbars=no,dependent=no'); return false;">Golden State</a> fall to +8.5 or more before jumping in, so we’ll have that profit margin we’re looking for. <a href="" target="_blank">But we’re on the right track at +7.5</a>, and there’s a good chance the betting public will get us the rest of the way there when they start pouring into the marketplace after work is done on<a href="" target="_blank"> Friday</a> – especially if that MRI turns out really bad. In the meantime, 60 percent of early bettors are on the Dubs, so we’re confident we’re on the sharp side here at the home office.</div></div>
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