We are less than a week away from the end of the NBA regular season, and tonight will be one of three remaining super nights in the NBA. 28 of the league’s 30 teams are in action tonight, and despite all the uncertainty and late season tanking, I have found a couple of NBA picks that seem to have some good value associated with them.
Bobcats vs. Pistons
At this point in the season, bad teams can almost have as much of more value than the playoff teams. The NBA Odds in this one favor the Pistons at -7 ½, but I am much more focused on the total tonight, which is at 197. While I do like the Pistons, the total seems like the better bet.
Five out of the last six times these two have played one another the total has gone over, as well as six of the last seven times they played in Detroit. Of course the Cats are awful on defense, as they are giving up over 104 points per game when playing on the road.
Charlotte has zero interior defense, which will lead to Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe dominating the inside. Charlotte isn’t a great matchup either, and I expect a game into the 200s tonight. The fact that most sportsbooks are offering the O/U at 197 makes us think that the best betting value lies in the total.
My NBA Pick: OVER 197
Warriors vs. Lakers
Both of these teams need this game for their own reasons. Golden State is trying to hold off Houston and hand onto the 6th seed, while the Lakers are of course trying to grab the final playoff spot remaining in the entire league. Golden State played last night against the Thunder and got waxed at home. If Golden State doesn’t win this game, they would likely fall to 7th behind a Rockets team that plays tonight as well.
These teams aren’t a good matchup for one another, which is once again why I’m placing my sports picks on the Over. Both of these teams will be playing hard on offense, and not so much on defense. Two of the three times they have played already this season the total has gone over, and five of their last seven contests overall have gone over.
Plus, in their last ten games overall against one another, the Lakers have averaged about 106 points per game against the Warriors. With them being tired, I think 206 ½ is very nice value. The Warriors are giving up an average of 102 points per game on the road this season, while the Lakers have given up about 101 per game in their last ten games overall. I see a 110-105 type of game tonight, so take the Over.
My NBA Pick: OVER 206 ½