Bucks vs. Bobcats
Charlotte and Milwaukee are two teams that have been struggling mightily on offense to start the season, but injury has been a big reason why. Al Jefferson has only played in six of the Cats’ 16 games this season, which has really hurt their offense. The Bucks were without a ton of starters for a short period of time, but they are finally starting to get healthy. Brandon Knight did not play in overtime Wednesday, but from what Larry Drew said after the game, it sounds as if he might have been able to return.
That being said, don’t believe the surface of these two teams’ numbers this season. They both have some offensive upside, and both are not great defensively. The Cats play better offense and defense at home, but still the total of 182 ½ in the NBA Odds is too low, and I like the over tonight.
Three of the last five games between these two teams have gone over the total listed by sportsbooks, and four of the last six road games for Milwaukee have gone over the total as well. The Bucks are giving up over 100 points per game this season, and on the road they are giving up almost 105 points per game. I doubt the Bobcats get 105 points, but 97 is a reasonable expectation, and that would likely mean the total has over value. So we'll be adding the ‘Over’ in this game to our NBA picks.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 182 ½
Warriors vs. Thunder
These two teams also played one another recently, and the final score was 115-116, cashing the over. The NBA Odds for this game are at 203, and I think we can expect another high scoring game like the first meeting. Both teams are giving up over 101 points per game this season, and with Andre Iguodala out, the Warriors will likely be giving up a ton of points to Kevin Durant in this game.
Harrison Barnes will fill in nicely on the offensive end for Iggy, however his defense is not quite at the level of where Iguodala is. This is going to put a strain on the rest of the Warriors as well, because guarding Durant has been known to limit that defenders’ offense on the other end of the floor.
The last three meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and seven of the last nine games between these two have gone over as well. The over has also cashed in five of the last six times these two have played in OKC.
It’s interesting that in the long term, the Warriors have owned this matchup ATS. The Thunder are only 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against the Warriors. I think this game will be very similar to the 115-116 game they played two weeks ago, so take the over and add it to your Black Friday NBA Picks.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 203 ½