NBA Picks: Friday Night Value Picks

PJ Laferla

Friday, January 25, 2013 2:34 PM GMT

Two teams that have been great all season on their home floor highlight our NBA picks for this Friday evening. Find out below which teams will beat the basketball betting odds for us bettors tonight.

Two Great Home Teams Will Cash In Tonight

Brooklyn Nets (26-14 SU) at Memphis Grizzlies (27-14)

Betting Odds: Grizzlies -4, Over/Under 177 ½

Tip Off: 8:05 PM EST, FedEx Forum

The Nets are a hot team coming into this matchup against the Grizzlies, winning three straight and nine of ten. They are equally as hot against the spread, producing four straight point spread covers versus Western Conference opponents and six of eight following a straight up win.

However, on the road they are pedestrian at 10-9 on the year, which is concerning going up against a Memphis team that has been great at home all season long.

Speaking of Memphis, their stingy defense continues to be spectacular, as their 89.5 points against average is second only to Indiana (89.3) in the NBA by percentage points. This explains why Memphis is under in 12 of their last 16 games played at home and 20 of their last 26 versus teams from the East. Brooklyn is also a team that has been keeping the final score under, especially on the road where 21 of their last 30 have fallen below that posted total.

Against the spread, Memphis has also put up numbers that are hard to overlook. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, 4-0-1 following a contest where they covered the spread and a perfect 4-0 versus Eastern Conference opponents.

In head to head action, the Nets have covered five of their last seven meetings against the Grizzlies, including four of five when meeting in Memphis. And as expected, 8 of the last 11 matchups between these two teams playing in Memphis have stayed under the posted total.

The Pick

Brooklyn is clearly the team with the momentum in this contest, but until they can prove to be more consistent and reliable on the road, it will be difficult to depend on them to cash in winning tickets.  And going up against the Grizzlies at home makes it all the more challenging for the Nets tonight. Lay the chalk with Memphis in this one, as they will come away with the victory and ATS win.

NBA Picks: Memphis  -4

[gameodds]5/134750/43/us[/gameodds]

Detroit Pistons (16-26 SU) at Miami Heat (27-12 SU)

Betting Odds: Heat -9 1/2, Over/Under 177 ½

Tip Off: 7:35 PM EST, American Airlines Arena

The Pistons have won just four games on the road all season and tonight they going up against a Miami Heat team that has been dominant on the home floor, with 17 wins compared to just three losses on the year.

However, this is about beating the NBA odds and the Pistons have done a pretty good job in that department lately, covering the point spread in their last four games played on the road, as well as four of five versus teams in the Eastern Conference and four of five after a straight up loss.

Meanwhile, Miami is only 4-9 ATS in their last 113 games overall and 1-6 in their last seven versus Eastern Conference teams. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread six straight games when facing a team from the Central Division.

However, against the Pistons, Miami has covered the point spread 9 of their last 13 when meeting up in South Beach and 19 of 28 overall.

Both teams have been keep their games under the posted total lately, as Detroit has fell short of the posted number in four of their last six games, while Miami is under in eight of their last ten games played at home. Furthermore, when facing each other at the American Airlines Arena, 15 of their last 21 contests have stayed under the posted total.

The Pick

Miami is on a mission to repeat as NBA Champions, while the Pistons are heading for a lottery pick. There is no way Detroit will be able to hang with Miami in this one. Personally, I expected the line to be a little higher, so jumping on Miami at -9 ½ is the right play to make on this game.

NBA Picks: Heat -9 ½

[gameodds]5/134747/43/us[/gameodds]